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River & Rural Realty LLC
P.O. Box 503
Warsaw, VA 22572

Office: (804) 333-3311

Kathryn Murray, broker
Warsaw, VA 22572
(O): (804) 333-3311
Cell: 804-450-4442
Fax: 877-295-0940
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Market snapshot on October 30

Since sometimes I have the most time on Sundays to do a bit of this I thought, let's get this done!! Granted I'm going to have to break out the market some later this week to see where the sales really are, but this bit I have here is helpful.

In response to most people saying that "the market is getting better," I agree but guardedly. Essentially I believe we are mostly just plain stable with some segments of the market improving and others not. That said, here are the numbers both for residential and for land. They cover the four counties of the Northern Neck (Northumberland, Westmoreland, Lancaster and Richmond) and run from 1/1 through 10/30.

Residential sales, four counties 1/1 to 10/30
  2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Active
# sold 295 336 374 401 450 701
$ sold (millions) 82.2 97.9 103.8 122.2 125.4 295.0
Median sales price 226,000 218,750 200,000 243,000 233,750 329,000
Median days on market 179 211 200 190 181 187

The increase in units sold and dollars sold is significant from 2012 to 2016. So that is a good thing. (Essentially 300 sales to 450 sales...quite an increase. The dollars follow along proportionately as well.) What isn't clear with 2016 versus 2015 is how this year will end...on an even note, a down note or an up note. I suspect that 2016 will be a slightly better year compared with 2015, with the majority of the increase due to more lower priced properties selling and that the high end properties will continue to lag. We'll check on this once all the numbers are in, but if you've been following this blog this year that really does look like a fairly good guess at the year end (with a touch of numerical information to inform that guess).

Land sales, four counties 1/1 to 10/30
  2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Active
# sold 99 103 117 107 84 931
$ sold (millions) 8.3 9.4 13.9 10.4 8.3 138
Median sales price 48,000 59,000 75,000 52,000 40,000 75,000
Median days on market 148 188 206 238 215 424

Here's a completely different dynamic. Sales in 2016 when compared with the previous four years are at an all time low. Dollars for the overall sales are at the same level as 2012, which is the lowest point...both 2012 and 2016 had $8.3 million in sales from the 1st of the year through October. What that 84 sales says about this year is if we averaged that out we'd be selling about 8 pieces of land each month. Think about what the 931 actives number says.....we have more properties that those we could sell in a ten year period. That is a lot of land!!

I'll do some more analysis this week. Had to do some family type checking on things, dealing with things. I think we all know that that isn't always simple.



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