River & Rural Realty--Find Virginia Waterfront property on the Northern Neck
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River & Rural Realty LLC
P.O. Box 503
Warsaw, VA 22572

Office: (804) 333-3311

Kathryn Murray, broker
Warsaw, VA 22572
(O): (804) 333-3311
Cell: 804-450-4442
Fax: 877-295-0940
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Long-term perspective on waterfront residential sales

We've been looking at how the market has been faring mostly by seeing this year's results in relationship to the past two years. It made me curious as to what the relatively "long-term" perspective might be. Our MLS system holds data for only five years and that is the reason for the limitation of the below chart. I realize that this is a lot of data, but I think it serves its purpose—it tells us where we stand today in relationship to a full five years. You might wish I'd broken it out in smaller increments....still this does add something to how we view the market. 

Waterfront residential sales 1/1 through 9/1 (4 counties) $400,000 and under
  2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Active
# sold 63 66 67 81 102 177
$ sold (millions) 16.1 17.8 18.1 22.6 27.9 54.6
Median sales price 269,900 275,000 272,000 285,000 276,000 329,000
Median days on market 216 305 254 257 219 159

This chart shows that there has been some real improvement since 2012 in the segment. The median sales price hasn't changed much through this five year period and the actives have a much higher median sales price (actually list price) but still, this looks pretty healthy. Not a huge amount of inventory....just a factor of about 1.5 times as much available as has sold this year.

Waterfront residential sales 1/1 through 9/1 (4 counties) $400,000 to $800,000
  2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Active
# sold 45 50 45 59 65 193
$ sold (millions) 22.3 24.6 23.4 33.6 33.7 110.6
Median sales price 485,000 450,000 481,000 515,000 510,000 549,900
Median days on market 172 221 171 203 264 171

As with the $400,000 and under, this segment, too, shows improvement when looking at the 2012 to 2016 relationship and also the intervening years. A considerable improvement in terms of sales, and a slight improvement over 2015 in dollars, but yes, improving. Much more inventory than the lower priced properties. About 3 times as much inventory available as has sold thus far this year.

Waterfront residential sales 1/1 through 9/1 (4 counties) $800,000 plus
  2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Active
# sold 10 14 12 18 9 67
$ sold (millions) 9.7 15.8 14.9 19.3 8.6 91.7
Median sales price 925,000 897,500 960,000 942,500 835,000 1.2 mill
Median days on market 296 347 283 130 244 236

Easy to spot what is going on....this is the hard hit segment. Look at 2016 in relationship to the four previous years. Fewest number of properties sold. Fewest dollars realized. Lowest median sales price this year. And a bit more than 7 times as many actives as there are solds in 2016. Not a pretty picture. Also look at the disconnect in terms of the median sales price (lowest of the five years in 2016 at $835,000) versus the median sales price of the actives at $1.2 million. Very very challenging.



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