What I put together and show below surprised me a little bit. Just goes to show you that the broad brush approach of looking at large segments of the market can be deceiving. In general when people ask me about the market I say it is flat in regard to last year (2015) which has been the best one since the debacle of the banking/mortgage meltdown. In broad brush terms that is true. But looking closer we can see that there are solid improvements in many sectors and so I'll go back and look at other portions of the market (other than waterfront residential) but for now we'll stick with this large slice of the market.

These numbers are for sales in the four counties of the Northern Neck--Richmond, Westmoreland, Northumberland and Lancaster. They are for the period 1/1 through 8/7 for the respective years.

Looking at the market in $100,000 segments until we get to $800,000 shows many different results. Most portions of the waterfront residential market are doing quite well. It is just that overall 2015 and 2016 numbers are similar. This, mostly because the high end properties are not doing as well as they had been in the last two years and that affects our dollars.

 We have just on more sale than last year in this category. And the dollars sold this year is more. The median sales price is higher than 2015 (although lower than 2014) and the median days on market is much improved over 2015. Yes, there are 21 properties on the market at this price, but that isn't a lot given what we've sold this year. So although it isn't a huge improvement, this segment is improved.

As we saw with the first segment, everything here is improved over the last two years....and significantly so. This is an improved segment. Not too much inventory either.

More sales, more dollars (just barely), a reduced median sales price and an increase in median days on market for 2016 in this segment. Improved, but mixed....I'd call it improved but not significantly. Looks like the inventory is quite a bit more with this price point.

More sales (significantly) and more dollars (significant too) with a very slightly higher median sales price over 2015 and a huge increase in the median days on market. This for 2016. All in all this is a quite improved segment with a fair amount of inventory. (As an aside, I looked at one property that sold this year in this category just to see what it went through to get to the finish line. It went on in 2011 at $825,000 and sold this year for $402,000. It's almost unbelievable, except I saw it and looked up these particulars.)

2016 market has fewer sales and fewer dollars. Median sales price is higher than 2015 and median days on market are dropped. Considerable inventory although there must be a fair amount that has come on recently since the median days on market for the actives is only 180 days. This is the first waterfront segment that has NOT IMPROVED since fewer numbers and fewer dollars in 2016.

Another improved segment. More sales, more dollars, higher median sales price all in 2016. The only negative is the median days on market has increased. Reasonable amount of inventory for a Northern Neck high end waterfront property...only twice the number of solds thus far this year sitting in the active category. Yes, improved.

There isn't a lot of action in this segment. Although this is not an improved segment there isn't too much that is different among the three years here. What we do see is a lot of inventory which would be a challenge if someone were selling and not priced well. Not improved...but almost unchanged really.

2016 we have fewer sales and fewer dollars than the two years previous. Also we have signficantly increased the median days on market for the solds. This one has quite a lot of inventory and obviously falls into the not improved category....actually significantly behind 2015. 

Nothing happening in this segment thus far in 2016. As you can see, there haven't been a lot of sales in the last couple of years. Quite a bit of inventory. Not improved.

Decidedly not improved and with an extremely challenging inventory.  Not improved.

I think what this shows is that stating that a market is improving or not is a very difficult thing to do. Having said that the market is basically flat to last year I've shown myself that there has been significant improvement at many price points. That is very good for our overall market and so that is what I'll explain going forward. Hopefully you've learned a little something here today.  Kathryn Murray, principal broker