River & Rural Realty--Find Virginia Waterfront property on the Northern Neck
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River & Rural Realty LLC
P.O. Box 503
Warsaw, VA 22572

Office: (804) 333-3311

Kathryn Murray, broker
Warsaw, VA 22572
(O): (804) 333-3311
Cell: 804-450-4442
Fax: 877-295-0940
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Extreme numbers for sales of Northern Neck waterfront residential properties in 2015

Waterfront Residential sales numbers in the Northern Neck for the year-to-date

In an effort to look at some of this information in a different light, I decided to examine three sales within each of the waterfront categories (using price point again) that sold this year. The three properties are ones that have been on the market the longest. Then, after looking up the Original List Price and comparing it with the Actual Sales Price, listing the number of Days on Market, I calculated the percentage of the original list price the property actually sold for. It will make more sense and be easier to understand once you look at the charts below.   (List price, sales price, DOM, %)

Beyond that I thought, hmmm, maybe we are getting beyond some of this extreme inventory. Maybe the sellers are catching on that this is a very complex market. Yes, it is getting better in that more properties are selling, but no, there's no promise that theirs will sell....and prices are still adjusting in some categories (which means they are being reduced).  So under each of the chart summaries is a list of numbers....three....of the listings that are active right now and have the greatest number of days on the market.

It isn't clear to me what in the world people are doing when these sort of numbers reflect their sitting on the market....it shows "not having to sell" really means waiting perhaps until the end of time. The market changes, the numbers adjust. What might have been true 6 months ago is not necessarily true now. The numbers reflect reality....unfortunately the numbers trump sitting and hoping...... even if I wish that weren't so. It is a numbers game and people want value and they still have a lot to choose from. Now for the EXTREME NUMBERS.

WF residential sales under $200,000+

  Orig. list price Sold price Days on market % of orig. list that property sold for
1 of the longest days on market 248,750 185,000 636 74%
2 of the longest days on market 185,000 125,000 446 67%
3 of the longest days on market 245,000 143,500 463 58.5%
 

Here are the actives that have the greatest duration in this segment: 1685, 1453, 983 days. That's a lot of waiting.  

Of these three that sold (shown above), the best result was close to 75% of the original price. The worst result was something just a bit north of 50%. These are interesting numbers and none of the solds was on the market for as much as two years. Someone was pricing the listings fairly well and obviously the sellers were willing to negotiate since the selling price in relationship to the listing price has a fair amount of play.

 

WF residential sales $200,000-$400,000

  Orig. list price Sold price Days on market % of orig. list that property sold for
1 of the longest days on market 399,000 275,000 1403 68.9%
2 of the longest days on  market 375,000 335,000 1206 89.0%
3 of the longest days on market 395,000 250,000 1216

63.2%

Oh my, these are a lot of days on market. This looks like the most extreme of the extremes. Anyway, one of them held out and didn't drop the price and was able to realize close to 90% of their original price. Granted it took 1206 days and that might have meant quite a bit of carrying costs or mortgage payments, but we'll never know. The others....not terrible....30% under and 36% under the original list price.....not what most sellers would like to consider might be "normal."

And for the longest term actives in this category we have: 2238, 1633, and 1122. Wow!!! That's a lot of days.

WF residential sales $400,000-$600,000

  Orig. list price Sold price Days on market % of orig. list that property sold for
1 of the longest days on market 525,000 405,000 1359 77%
2 of the longest days on  market 695,000 528,500 1079 76%
3 of the longest days on market 530,000 402,825 1114 76%

Personally I don't think waiting three years to sell a house makes sense if your goal is to sell a house. I can't know all the particulars about any given case, but when someone decides to list their house even if "they don't need to sell" well they've made a shift in their expectations. They've made a shift in how they want to live their life and even if financially they are not absolutely pushed to sell, in essence they are moving on. And much as I would like to say that things are going to get better and better in this market. I have no guarantees, nor do you. So look at the numbers and understand where you stand and make choices .....if your goal is to move on and sell.

So really these are sales at about 75% of what the listing was originally put on at. Hmmmm.

Actives that are longest on the market ("top" 3): 1566, 1207, 1033

WF residential sales $600,000-$800,000

  Orig. list price Sold price Days on market % of orig. list that property sold for
1 of the longest days on market 799,000 600,000 854 75%
2 of the longest days on  market 975,000* 822,000 605 84%
3 of the longest days on market 925,000* 760,000 610 82%

* Let me explain these two. At some point their list price dropped to $800,000 or under. That is why they fell into this category. At the point at which they went under contract they fit our $600,000 to $800,000. So the 2nd one above had some sort of wrangling that went on that ended up with the party paying more than the list at the time...don't ask me why. With number 3 above, well it was probably listed at $799,000 at the point of the contract to purchase at $760,000....that's what I'm guessing happened. Anyway, these three reflect the best outcome of all so far. 75%, 84%, 82% of the original list....That's not bad. And none of these ran into the 3 year plus range which we can't say about the two previous categories. 

Of course the actives in this category might make you cringe with: 3103, 1642 and 1196 days on market as the winners on the most days active.

WF residential sales $800,000-$1,000,000

  Orig. list price Sold price Days on market % of orig. list that property sold for
1 of the longest days on market 949,000 810,000 635 85%
2 of the longest days on  market 998,000 791,000 334 79%
3 of the longest days on market 999,000 959,500 215 95%

This doesn't look so bad. Not a single on here that was on the market for two years plus. Not a single one that really had a price negotiated to the extreme. 20% isn't perfect, but that is the most off of the original list that was paid for a property. This isn't anywhere as extreme as most of the extremes. The days on market for the actives aren't perfect, but they are far from the worst with: 1648, 1055, 977.

WF residential sales $1,000,000-$1,250,000

  Orig. list price Sold price Days on market % of orig. list that property sold for
1 of the longest days on market 1,198,000 1,050,000 299 87%
2 of the longest days on  market 1,195,000 1,148,000 128 96%
3 of the longest days on market 1,200,000 1,200,000 53 100%

By far the best segment so far in terms of days on market to sell and percentage of sales price in relationship to original asking price. Not bad. Actually really rather good. The actives, well, there are some that are much more challenges. 1059, 839, 583. Guess it shows that if you price your property to the market activity you are much more likely to sell and also to sell near your asking price. Makes really good sense. The market talks. 

 

WF residential sales $1,250,000+

  Orig. list price Sold price Days on market % of orig. list that property sold for
1 of the longest days on market 1,590,000 1,100,000 538 69%
2 of the longest days on market 1,850,000 1,360,000 640 73.5%
3 of the longest days on market 1,250,000 850,000 439 68%
 

Not great, but not bad. Not into the two year wait to sell. Not a great percentage sales price to original list price, but this is a difficult segment to price really well and there's lots of inventory. Here are the longest active listings: 2063, 1041 and 953 days. Waiting, waiting, waiting.

If you want to really figure out where your property fits into the marketplace and how best to price it to sell, we will be pleased to help you. It isn't rocket science....it is really quite clear. I love the non-numbers side of real estate. I can understand why people love their houses and what they've done to them. I also know that I can't help them sell them if they won't regard the market. Buyers know what is out there. They do their homework. They know that they can pick and choose. Help them choose your house andmake 2016 the year that you move on to your next stage....whatever that might be!!! Wishing you the best for the new year.  Kathryn 



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