River & Rural Realty--Find Virginia Waterfront property on the Northern Neck
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River & Rural Realty LLC
P.O. Box 503
Warsaw, VA 22572

Office: (804) 333-3311

Kathryn Murray, broker
Warsaw, VA 22572
(O): (804) 333-3311
Cell: 804-450-4442
Fax: 877-295-0940
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Northern Neck of Virginia real estate sales updated...mid June

We're almost there--to the middle of June and I thought I'd double check some of my generalizations. Lately everywhere I go people are saying, the market's improving, right? And I say, well I think it is really stable and not improving very much. So this is taking a look at where the chips really are falling this year in relationship to past years. In the last few weeks I've only compared our 2015 sales with 2013 and 2014, but I thought it would mean more if we went back to 2011 and 2012, when we were just pulling out of that abysmal period which was the end of 2008, and all of 2009 and 2010.

All of these charts are for the period January 1st through June 12th. Also, I put up the actives at the far right. The counties that are included in here are: Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond and Essex. So let's see where we stand in this....."getting better market, right?"

1/1-6/12 All residential sales
  2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Active
# sold 147 155 176 190 189 1000
$ sold (millions) 34.5 41.1 48.7 46.7 55.9 409.6
Median sales price 173,500 200,000 189,000 167,000 210,000 302,475
Median days on market 169 190 216 224 201 133

Improving? Well yes, a bit. One fewer sale this year, but considerably more dollars changed hands. Also the median sales price is up over all four previous years. The days on market are down somewhat. Better....yes, but not in any big way. Quite a bit of inventory and the median sales price for the actives is 1.5 times the median price of this year's solds. A big difference. Interestingly the median days on market for the actives is quite a reasonable figure. Perhaps there are a lot of properties that have gone off and have come back on the market as well as new properties to the market. Can't tell you exactly why.

1/1-6/12 Waterfront residential sales

  2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Active
# sold 57 71 75 68 87 552
$ sold (millions) 23.3 28.2 34.6 30.4 42.0 313.4
Median sales price 340,000 350,000 380,000 347,450 400,000 449,250
Median days on market 271 216 282 297.5 234 130

Obviously the numbers above are a subset of the overall residential sales. The solds for this category have decidedly improved (87 this year vs. 68 last year). Greatest number of solds, greatest dollars for the solds in all five years. The median sales price hit $400,000 for the first time in five years. And the median days on market are lower than both 2013 and 2014. Look at the active median sales price....there is nowhere near the big difference here between this year's sold dollar median and the active. Of course the expensive waterfront obviously skewed the above situation (total residential sales info), so it isn't really a helpful number when you look at it there. In waterfront residential there are far fewer median days on market for the current active properties. I'd say, yes, this part of the market has improved. That is good news for sellers and something for buyers to keep in mind....still a buyers market, but inventory is starting to go!! 

1/1-6/12 All Land sales

  2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Active
# sold 68 61 50 68 56 973
$ sold (millions) 7.4 4.8 4.5 8.5 4.6 139.5
Median sales price 37,000 40,000 59,500 58,500 39,250 71,000
Median days on market 209 136 287.5 196 215.5 396

Overall land sales.....hmmmm.....2015 is one of the worst years of the last five. In every year except for 2013, the sales of property was better than 2015. I think the numbers pretty much speak for themselves. 2011 and 2014 there were the same number of sales.....68. that is the maximum number of sales we've had in any of the five years. And with each of those two years there were far more dollars that were exchanged. Let's hope that 2015 thus far is not indicative of the overall land market since there are many many sellers who have been waiting a long time to sell. Look at the median days on market for the actives.....wow, 396 days!! 

1/1-6/12 Waterfront Land sales

  2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Active
# sold 23 20 22 27 24 422
$ sold (millions) 4.1 2.4 3.3 5.9 3.5 105.0
Median sales price 120,000 89,750 144,000 189,000 112,500 170,050
Median days on market 302 224 414 117 270 369

Really what can you say about this. Numbers of sales are not great. 2014 was the best year of all and 2015 is not great at all. Median days on market have grown again after falling to quite a reasonable 117 in 2014. The active number is large. The median days on market for the actives is over a year. Not simple for sellers and provides buyers with a lot to choose from.

Let me know if I can help you with a purchase or a sale, or with real estate perspective.  Thank you. --Kathryn Murray, principal broker, MBA, 804-450-4442 cell



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