River & Rural Realty--Find Virginia Waterfront property on the Northern Neck
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River & Rural Realty LLC
P.O. Box 503
Warsaw, VA 22572

Office: (804) 333-3311

Kathryn Murray, broker
Warsaw, VA 22572
(O): (804) 333-3311
Cell: 804-450-4442
Fax: 877-295-0940
EMAIL OFFICE
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Promises, promises...by the end of the day

A bunch of running around to do after a totally calm and beautiful day on the river yesterday. Nothing could have been more spectacular than the dawn with the bit of overcast and the perfectly calm waters that reflected up some of the puffy clouds.

Yesterday we all were hearing from family and loved ones (or been able to share with them) and hopefully are filled with goodwill based on how really full of goodness and grace our lives our...how much we truly have. Thanksgiving is a great holiday and I intend to hold the feelings of yesterday closeby as I ease into this next couple of days. No shopping for me. No trying to win out on something I really don't need. Things are quite good just the way they are. 

What was most fun about yesterday was telling myself to stop...I didn't turn on the computer. Yes, I did check my email a couple of times on my phone but that is a far cry from the hourly obsession that makes up my regular days. And I knew that no one was going to respond or act on anything anyway, and wasn't that a nice type of day. It is something. We really do STOP. We really do NOTICE. We really do SHARE and not in a way that requires any commercial element. You could leave the TV off (except for football and maybe the parade....although it has become openly filled with a lot of ads-- I guess) and recreate a Thanksgiving of 10 or 20 or 40 years ago....and it would require nothing really new--just those dear to us who share in the day. Old recipes handed down. Old China perhaps shared among family members....a collection of friends and family and a feeling of being really there for the moment. 

Okay, enough for now. Off to do some of the things that need to be done and I will be back to put up some numbers and a bit of perspective before the sun sets. I appreciate your being there and coming to read what the Northern Neck has to offer....and what it has been experiencing. I am thankful for a great deal, not least of all the simplicity that comes with living in a place where people are generally friendly and there are spaces in between experiences. That long drive from here to there is actually a moment to catch your breath and let your mind wander a little. Hmmm... a gift.

4:15 p.m. Back again and just barely before sunset. Since I'll be updating us once we finish up the month it didn't seem particularly advantageous to look at anything that told us a bit more of what we already know and just at a day or two before we have a whole month to look at. For that reason I went and looked at dollars/square foot for solds at different price points. As you know if you've read this over time, I'm not a great supporter of that bit of statistics being terribly useful. Then again if it is for a specific price point then all the great variables will have factored in for each year. I still don't like it. What accounts for the size of the property and the depth of the water etc. Well rather than talking you out of looking at this, what I suggest is that you see it with a rather skeptical eye. We all know that statistics can be pushed and pulled and manipulated to say almost anything based on what you include and what you include. I'm not out to make any major point...it was another exercize that may or may not tell us something new.

This chart is for the five counties we follow: Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond and Essex. It is for the time frame from January 1 through November 28th and for the respective years. You'll see what the price points are and what the price per square foot is for the solds in that time frame.

Waterfront residential price/sq.ft.
Price point of sold property 2011 2012 2013 2014
Up to $400,000 191.87 184.53 173.85 185.00
$400,000 to $800,000 221.19 227.00 212.00 205.84
$800,000 to $1,200,000 279.47 287.50 236.00 234.50
$1,200,000 plus 290.63 338.00 423.75 430.22

Taking a quick look at this we can see that the price per square foot of the under $400,000 segment has declined since 2011 but is slightly above 2012 and 2013. What does that tell us? I really can't say. I guess what it looks like is it is rather stable.

Looking at the next category, well the price is less in 2014 than in any of the previous three years. Perhaps that tells us that people are getting more for their money. Again, a tough call. The next segment the $800,000 to $1.2 million has shown a steady decline in $/sq.ft.--this segment has been hard hit in this market. That leaves us with the $1.2 million plus group. There the $/sq.ft price is up and up considerably since 2011. Just the opposite of the three lower priced segments.

You tell me. Does this help you understand the market any better than without it. I'm not sure it really helps me, but it does tell me that things are changing and in some cases subtley and in other cases not so subtley. I'm looking forward to just working with the real numbers and not ones that are based on so many variables other than square feet....in a town or city, square feet tend to be square feet. Here, square feet can come with lots of acreage or not. With  a spectacular view or not. With a great pier complex or no pier. With sand beach or no. Square feet as a measure of what is going on is a very complex number and something to just give you a bit more information but nothing to really depend on.

If you have a statistical request, please email it to me. I am always willing to take a look and would love a suggestion of something new to look at.....later next week will be the monthly update.  My thanks, Kathryn                 Kathryn Murray, 804-450-4442 cell



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