River & Rural Realty--Find Virginia Waterfront property on the Northern Neck
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Contact Information

River & Rural Realty LLC
P.O. Box 503
Warsaw, VA 22572

Office: (804) 333-3311

Kathryn Murray, broker
Warsaw, VA 22572
(O): (804) 333-3311
Cell: 804-450-4442
Fax: 877-295-0940
By the numbers
Everyone keeps asking if it isn't "getting better." They are asking about our local market and isn't it clear that changes are coming and we're going to get out of this sluggishness soon.
I keep saying that I believe it is sort of flat. We've looked at numbers this year that show this is pretty much the case, but here we are approaching the first of November and I thought it was time to see what the numbers really have to say at this late date. Here it is in a rather broad-brush fashion, residential properties for the five counties for the period 1/1 to 10/18 for a series of different price points. Essex county and the four counties of the Northern Neck are included.
Residential sales up to $100,000
  2013 2014 Active
# sold 61 72 94
$ sold (millions) 3.8 4.5 7.0
Median sales price 65,000 64,500 75,000
Median days on market 117 150.5 163.5

A slight improvement here in terms of number of sales and dollars sold. Actives are not a huge number in relationship to the number of sales. Days on market have increased both for the 2014 solds and the actives, but still and all, not bad. Holding our own...actually there is an improvement here.

Residential sales $100,000 to $250,000
  2013 2014 Active
# sold 145 168 303
$ sold (millions) 23.3 26.8 54.3
Median sales price 159,000 155,000 178,000
Median days on market 207 202 168

Again we are holding our own, or actually see a slight improvement in 2014 in all categories except for the median sales price. And there are fewer than twice the number of actives as number of solds for 2014. Not really a bad relationship for around here. So this one as well as the lower price point has slight good news for us.

Residential sales $250,000 to $500,000
  2013 2014 Active
# sold 111 108 358
$ sold (millions) 36.9 37.2 128.2
Median sales price 325,000 334,000 349,250
Median days on market 238 194 187

Slight reduction in number of solds with a slight increase in dollars sold for 2014. An increase of median sales price and a reduction in median days on market for 2014. Not a very signficant difference between median sales price for those properties sold in 2014 and those that are active. There is a bit more than three times as much active inventory as there have been solds in 2014. Really, so close to three years worth of inventory within this category. I think with the fewer numbers and the slightly higher dollars we'll just call this price point a wash. Not good news and not bad news.

Residential sales $500,000 to $750,000
  2013 2014 Active
# sold 30 24 116
$ sold (millions) 16.8 14.2 72.2
Median sales price 537,500 617,500 615,750
Median days on market 189.5 257.5 170

A 20% drop in number of sales in 2014. A lesser percentage drop in total dollars but that's because the median price of the sales significantly increased in 2014. But look at the median days on market....that really increased. We also have almost 5 times as many properties active as we have sold this year. Median days on market for those actives looks pretty good. Obviously with fewer sales, lesser dollars, higher median days on market and close to 5 years worth of inventory, this is a segment that isn't doing as well as in 2013.

Residential sales $750,000 tp $1,000,000
  2013 2014 Active
# sold 18 12 71
$ sold (millions) 14.4 9.9 63.1
Median sales price 774,750 824,850 895,000
Median days on market * * *

Fewer sales by a third in 2014. Fewer dollars too. Higher median sales price in 2014 which helped the total dollar sales. Almost 6 times the number of 2014 solds available in the active category. This is another category that is behind 2013. Not an improving segment for this year.

* got distracted and forgot to record....don't think this is essential information at the moment.

Residential sales $1,000,000 plus
  2013 2014 Active
# sold 5 7 39
$ sold (millions) 8.1 10.7 62.7
Median sales price 1.5 1.2 1.4
Median days on market 348 293 202

Higher numbers....love it, two more sales than last year and with so few sales in this category, that is signficant. Higher dollars sold in 2014. Lower median sales price in 2014. An improved median days on market in 2014. About 5.5 times as much active inventory as has sold in 2014 so not quite as crowded as the $750,000 to $1,000,000 price point. We'll have to say that this segment is improving....sort of. This isn't a resounding improvement and could almost be considered a wash, but let's look at it as slightly improving. Keep in mind that at this rate you have a one in five chance of selling next year if you have a house on the market in this category (approximately). Not numbers greatly in anyone's favor.

Residential sales total 
  2013 2014 Active
# sold 369 391 974
$ sold (millions) 102.9 103.3 385.9
Median sales price 210,000 180,000 299,700
Median days on market 207 197 179.5

It looks as if we are safe to say that the market is holding its own, which really is a good thing. We had miserable sales in 2009 and 2010 and an improvement, although not significant in 2011. Then a bit more improvement in 2012. The sales for 2013 were the best in a long time. Now we are keeping up with that....actually more sales and slightly more dollars in 2014 over 2013. The median sales price is down this year which is not the best signal for high end property, but the median days on market are down. For the overall market we have only about two and a half years' of inventory. Sounds like a lot, but remember there are a number of segments here where there is about 5 years or more inventory sitting out there. This is a market that is doing okay. We aren't in the middle of an area with great jobs....we are a specialized market and we are doing pretty well given the many factors that affect this market's bottom line.





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