Here we have the same approach to land as I followed yesterday while reviewing residential properties, both total and with the subset of waterfront. This two set of statistics reviews the land sales for the same durations, November&December of 2019 and then January of 2020. This is the same period used for the following three years to give you pre and post-covid perspective. Once again it shows a major shift in the market. The four counties that have been included are: Westmoreland, Richmond, Northumberland and Lancaster.

Waterfront sales have changed a fair amount, but are still fairly strong if you look at post-covid versus pre-covid. 15 sales in the 2019 period while in the most recent 3 months ending January 31 of 2023 there have been 32 sales.

And just to keep this a bit in perspective, there are many many listings for land that have been on the market for forever. I looked at the most long standing group of land listings (not waterfront) and there is a considerable number that have been on since 2005 with no price change.Not precisely responding the market. I think that's a waste. Whatever was going on with the covid market certainly put those properties in a better position to be sold than now when we have started to turn the corner even on land sales. So it goes.

Here we have a series of three month periods to look at to see how the market has evolved. Although a bit odd, these periods are comprised of November and December and then January for the respective years. The first one is November and December of 2019 with January of 2020 and so it goes until the last one which is November and December of 2022 with January of 2023. We learn a lot looking at this.(Four counties are Richmond, Westmoreland, Lancaster and Northumberland.)

And here is the subset of the residential sales. This represents the same time frame as above and for waterfront residential properties.

You can see that the number of sales of waterfront residential property has dropped greatly in this last 3 month period that has been analyzed. There are significantly fewer properties that sold even than in the period prior to Covid. So whjat that says about the market going forward.....it looks a little rock. Also that the median sales price is now so far up there at almost $800,000 whereas in late 2019 the median sales prive was just a little over $400,000. Looks like the high end people have been trying to realize their extra bonus given the extraordinary circumstances that pushed people to look for special refuges. Not to say the Northern Neck isn't special, it certainly is. It is just like other markets which is likely past its peak. We'll see how this sorts itself out.

Here is a summary of residential property sales in Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Richmond counties in the timeframe from January 1 through June 1 for the respective years.  It is quite something to behold. What we can see in the full residential sales market is that 2021 was "the year" with the greatest number of properties sold and the greatest dollar amount. We can also see that the median sales price has been creeping up with the current active median price point way above the median sales price for 2022 which was the highest median we've had. The market has shifted to high end properties and so for a lot of people they will be priced out. Also, lower end properties that are a value at their price point will get lots of attention and will sell.

The waterfront sales have skewed more dramatically and obviously those sales have affected the overall residential summary. Look at the difference in median sales price from 2019 ($354,900) and 2022 ($600,000). Then look at the median sales price of what is on the market for waterfront property which is $799,500....essentially $800,000.  That says a lot about the 90 active properties that we have available.

I will be putting up land sales later this week. For these purposes let me just say that sales peaked in 2021 for land as well. With fewer sales in 2022.

What I've put together is a set of statistics that covers from the 1st of the year until the 11th of March (today) for the years 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. This tells the story of pre-Covid (2029), beginning Covid (2020), very very crazy active real estate market Covid (2021) and we've burned through a lot of inventory, where do we stand Covid (2022). And it's all here in black and white. Thought it would be helpful to see.

This is for the four counties of the Northern Neck and as already said, for four years for just 2 months and a bit. Also, for the waterfront stats I've added how many properties are active and what their attributes are. That shows that we don't have much inventory and what we do have is definitely higher end. Those looking to buy "reasonable" waterfront, say in the under $500,000 category, aren't going to get many options and if priced right they will quickly disappear.

Looking at this you can see that we sold a lot more in 2021 and that the price was higher.....that was until we got to 2022 when median sales price took another jump. Look at how many median days on market we've seen this year. Yes, things are selling fast!

Look at that median sales price just march on up higher and higher, year by year. And now the median sales price for active waterfront listings is at $849,000. Wow! And relatively speaking, if there have been 41 properties sold in less than three months this year, with 52 actives we don't have much more than three months inventory. Perhaps there will be plenty of new inventory coming on since many wait until April or so to get into the market. Then again we don't really know if anything about this market is normal, do we?

Here it is, the information that will give us pretty good perspective about what has gone on in the last year and how the Northern Neck market fits in overall.

This covers the four counties of the Northern Neck (Richmond, Lancaster, Northumberland and Westmoreland).

Really considerable difference between 2018 and 2019 and then 2020 and 2021. Looking at the two sets of two  years there's been a huge percentage increase in numbers of properties sold. Huge percentage increase in dollars sold. A very active market.

The above reflects what we've been hearing in general about the real estate market: Not as much inventory and higher prices. Obviously looking at the waterfront properties right below (a subset) that change in median sales price is much more notable.

And here's the land information to take a look at. Sales really picked up in the last two years.

A huge difference in land sales in the last two years. Still quite an inventory but as I've said before, there are some lots that have been on the market for ten years and probably will not budge because they aren't priced right even for this market.

Here it is, the information that will give us pretty good perspective about what has gone on in the last year and how it fits in overall.

Here we are once again looking to see what the pandemic buying has done to our market. We are hardly alone, but the question comes up as to whether this is still marching along....this overheated market.....and the answer is sort of. but not really. It may be that the demand is there, but the inventory isn't. You'll see it's not simple once you look below.

This is for the four counties of the Northern Neck. Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Richmond.

All residential properties

Significantly fewer properties sold in the six month period in 2021. Approximately same dollar amount though with these fewer sales. Obviously the sales are more skewed toward expensive properties. Not much inventory.

Here's the subset of the above, only waterfront residential sales.

Significantly fewer homes sold this year in this period. Higher median price, quicker turn around in terms of sales. Again, is it because the market has slowed or that the inventory just really isn't there. Too many sellers wanting to take advantage of this market and perhaps finding their expectations to be unrealistic. Then others just staying put since they don't know what kind of buying situation they'd get into going elsewhere.

I wanted to look at land with a bit broader perspective. For that reason I did exactly what I've done above except I've added the same 6 months for 2019. It is an informative way to look at land sales.

Yes, this is a very interesting chart. The reason I've put an asterix next to the number of active is that I find that number very deceiving. There are subdivisions with a dozen or two dozen or more lots that have been listed without any price change for five or maybe ten years. That takes the reality out of that number. I guess I could go back and just look at how many lots there are that have been on for five years and let you know. I think I may try it, but for now you can see that sales went from 71 to 133 to 209. That is a significant change in land sales over these past two years.

What I've put together here covers an almost 6 month period. Just had to get this done otherwise other things of interest would come along and it wouldn't be posted. What I've done is pulled numbers from March 1 through August 22nd for the years 2020 and 2021. What I'm trying to see, and you will see this shows it, is just how much the market has continued to evolve which really means how it is still booming. Below are residential sales for the four counties--Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Richmond. Then there is the subset of waterfront residential sales. Then I do the same thing with land. At the end of this I'll add some comments.

It's clear that the market is still in overdrive. There isn't much inventory in the residential sphere and so properties sell almost as quickly as they come on. It's evident in 2020 we were selling off inventory that had been around for a while since days on market were 145 for all residential and 165 for waterfront. That changed considerably in 2021 with the days on market being 73 and 74 respectively.....a 50% drop in days. And as is true throughout the U.S. we don't have much residential inventory. We used to easily have a year's worth of residential inventory and here we barely have a couple of months. Yes, highly competitive for buyers and a real incentive for sellers to take advantage of this market.

Land sales, too have seen a lot of action. At least twice as many lots sold in the overall and the waterfront categories when we compare 2021 to 2020. Unlike the residential market there is plenty of inventoy out there and the median days on market are still more than half a year. Of course there are some listings that really skew these statistics badly. In just glancing at the sales I noted that some of these sales were listings that were on the market for as many as 5,000 days or then there are many that were 2,000 days.....that's a long time to be on the market.

These numbers hopefully give you an idea of what is going on out there. It is still extremely active and prices are going up. It is very much a sellers' market.

What I've put together here covers an almost 6 month period. Just had to get this done otherwise other things of interest would come along and it wouldn't be posted. What I've done is pulled numbers from March 1 through August 22nd for the years 2020 and 2021. What I'm trying to see, and you will see this shows it, is just how much the market has continued to evolve which really means how it is still booming. Below are residential sales for the four counties--Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Richmond. Then there is the subset of waterfront residential sales. Then I do the same thing with land. At the end of this I'll add some comments.

Here are the stats for sales for that almost three month period comparing totally pre-pandemic, slightly pandemic and we're still in it pandemic sales. What you can see is that the sales have increased from 2019. The value of the sales has increased too. The inventory we have is pretty scant since it is less than what has sold in this period. I don't keep track of this number but suspect if I went to 2019 and looked at my statistics it would show that this number is very low.

These numbers are for the four counties of the Northern Neck of Virginia. They include Westmoreland, Northumberland, Richmond and Lancaster.

Here is a subset of this sales activity and it is for only the waterfront residential sales. Given what you've seen for the overall market, this basically follows suit.

This is really quite interesting in that the rise in numbers is fairly significant from 2019 to 2021 (sold 49 to 74), but the value jumping to almost double ($21.8 versus $41.6 million sold) tells us something. Also the median price between those two years is $345,000 versus $504,500. And look at the changes in the days on market.....Yes, things are flying off the shelf.

I've been slow about doing statistics but I think that what I have here is very helpful. As we know sales on the Northern Neck of Virginia and in many other "non city" locations have just gone through the roof. Given our reasonable proximity to lots of major places...DC, Richmond, Fredericksburg, etc., it makes perfect sense that we got our fair share of "uptick" and really that is a huge understatement.

Here are some numbers for you to consider that cover Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Richmond counties.

There are many many lots that have been on for a zillion years with no action and so they really skew the numbers. If the bunch that have been on for 5 or more years were subtracted from this, the changes that took place in 2020 would look much more startling. Don't know why there are so many listings that just sit there with no pricing that relates to the market. I have learned that slow.....can be something that prevails here in the Northern Neck.

As I've said before we aren't going to start seeing the numbers related to a COVID-19 slowdown until around June and so that is true with what I have here. Although the numbers of sales have decreased in total in 2020, it is only just slightly in comparison to 2019 and the dollars are more. This is true for waterfront as well.

These numbers are from a small subset of time and so would be highly variable in the best cases and this is not a best case. Still I think it bears out that this was going to be a rather good year for real estate.

Looking at waterfront sales for 2020 versus 2019 what we see is slightly fewer properties sold, higher total dollars, higher median price and a considerable set of median days on market. Then again at 200 that doesn't look so bad when compared with 2018's median days on market tht was 297. 

We'll see where things go as we get to the end of May and start into June. Hopefully this won't be too tough a market for buyers and sellers but somehow I think that this will be tough....time will tell.

I continue to drive my dogs for their morning slow tour of the neighborhood. Some days I don't see anyone. Some days the sole farmer who is moving around this area will pass us by. Occasionally there is a random car or truck. It is quiet. It is very quiet even for this world. I remember when I first came to the Northern Neck and went to do yoga with a great group of women. When driving back home at around 8 p.m. I was initially spooked by the fact that I might see no cars in a 30 minute drive. Granted, this was all back roads, but still....having moved from DC (right near the Zoo) and prior to that NYC on the outskirts of SoHo, this sort of quiet would be unimaginable. It became normal and now I understand it and appreciate it and in a way relish it. Where could I drive at 20 mph and not have to pull over for an almost half hour tour of the neighborhood?

The ride now includes a new development. Normally there are geese and goslings at a pond on our route. I hadn't seen any geese in the last few weeks....well, there was one goose who I thought....he/she must be lost, what in the world are they doing here by themselves, but otherwise that was it. In the last two days two sets of adults have emerged with their goslings. There is a set of 5 and a set of 3. It's clear to me that they are at least two weeks old and maybe older. I've often seen them when they are just little softball size bits of fuzz and these are older than that. They are all quite brave or cavalier. Generally I have to stop to let them cross the street for I must be traveling at the time that they emerge from the woods where their nest sites must be and come out onto the lush cut grass that surrounds this pond. I know that I will follow their growth and will marvel at how quickly it all changes.

Where I turn around to come home there's been a truck parked. I know what that means and although I kept intending to look things up I got distracted for quite a while. It is turkey season right now meaning hunting season. What I wanted to look up is how long it runs and also what the terms are.....when can people hunt. My reason for wanting to do this is that my parents own a 30 acre parcel in Westmoreland county and we've tried to keep the old logging road open with the hopes that one day that property will be sold. It is a beautiful property with hardwoods that run all the way back to a tiny little bit of creek (Beale's Mill Run off of the Nomini). I have always loved that property. I need to go walk it and then contact one of my buddies to come and cut up any trees that have fallen over the road so that it is clear. Who knows....maybe one day we'll sell. Who knows....maybe it will just stay as it is for years and years and years. I don't think we really know what the full fallout will be from our brave new world. There will be people very badly hurt by this but there will be opportunities for others. At the moment I'm not going to try to go too far with that.

That said, I'll give you some numbers here that I think just serve as a benchmark. I think that because sales of properties are often set in motion (with ratified contracts) say 60 days before closing, we aren't at a point where we can read too much about the future market which of course will be highly challenged.

Really what we see is that April sales are pretty much in line with the previous years. Obviously it is a small snapshot and subject to not being broad enough to tell us much. I think though, it says that the covid impact on numbers is yet to come, which based on the 60 day period of time to get to closing makes perfect sense.

What we can see in these numbers too is that 2020 was shaping up to be the year of selling higher end properties. Look at how 34 sold in 2018 at 9.6 million, and this year, 2020, 25 sold at 8.0 million. Those are some expensive houses that sold this month.

I think what will be telling will be what the numbers look like around the beginning or middle of June. It is hard to believe there can be anywhere near the normal momentum since it is so awkward (or some more powerful word) to be out looking at real estate and having people travel to see it. We'll see how this works out but it is a significant time for us and real estate is a significant engine for the economy. I'm afraid it will be a very very different 2020 moving forward.

My daily life has become pretty low and slow. It’s certainly different but it adds a bit of attention to the natural world around me which is nice. Every day, rain or shine, I take my elderly lab-ish dogs for a ride. It takes about 25 minutes as we trundle along at about 20 miles per hour. They love it and they’ve been getting this kind of spoiled for about two years. (They are 13 now.)

They sit at either window in the backseat with one black nose sticking out and one yellow. These days I hardly ever see a soul. There’s maybe one or two farmers. Before the virus I had to time us so that we wouldn’t encounter the 8 am rush to get to work at the Refuge. I think there are five or six employees. I’d also make every effort to miss the couple of school bus times since my yellow guy thinks he needs to bark at them to chase them away. 

One of the high points in the drive is going past a rather eclectic bit of a farm. Goats, chickens, dogs and most especially guinea hens. There must be about thirty of them. Sometimes they are way off in the fields. Sometimes they are carelessly walking in the middle of the road. On a couple of occasions they’ve come running at the car, suggesting to me a long ago image (which may or may not be real) that I think was a Dr. Seuss book entitled “Are you my mother”. It’s what it feels like and I’m sure in this day and age anything that can bring a smile t to your face is a good moment.

For now I’m thankful for the quiet contemplative time I have with my two great buddies. They experience neighborhoods filled with different smells and I experience the slow unfolding of spring.

To better explain the Historic Sites book, it was put together by a group who was then part of Preservation Virginia based in Richmond. Since that time the Richmond headquarters disbanded the branches of the group and kept the central one intact. Our local group had to set themselves up independently when this happened. Prior to that, though, they put together the book. My understanding is that there had been an "inventory" of pre-Civil War structures in the Northern Neck done around the end of World War II. And that a lot had changed and that perhaps there was more information to be had at around 2010. The members of this group divided up the counties (and there are 6, includes the 4 on the Northern Neck and then King George and Essex) and they researched what might be included in this book and then they met to vet these ideas and vote in what should go in and what wasn't necessary. They wrote up the descriptions and these were discussed and then they were edited by Thomas A. Wolf (who may still be putting together the excellent work by the Historical Society in Northumberland county). In addition to editing the work he also wrote the first two chapters that put the book into context. Each chapter has an introduction which includes those statistics I referred to on Sunday as well as any other particularly pertinent county factors.

In addition to the pre-Civil War sites there were a handful of other sites that are incuded because they are considered significant. There is even a set of archeological sites or locations associated with the indian population. There may not be anything to be seen of them now, but they are know. The book includes many maps as well as hundreds of photos of the structures.

This is an amazing way to look at the Northern Neck. It is so easy to think that this is such a simple place with waterfront homes, inland homes, a bunch of timberland as well as some massive farms. There is so much more than that. And it isn't really simple. This was a thriving economy in the 1700s and there are vestiges of it everywhere whether restored and in full glory, or needing attention.

Now that you've indulged me in that, here are a few statistics for the day.

Million dollar plus properties that have sold in the Northern Neck over the last few years ....the sales look like this:

2016, 4 sold

2017, 17 sold

2018, 8 sold

2019, 12 sold

Thus far, until the 7th of April, 3 have sold

The active $1,000,000 plus properties total 24.

It's been a long time since I've wanted to simply express what it is like to live here in the Northern Neck. Part of that has to do with time. Part of that has to do with a lot of stressors. Just as you are probably finding new ways to involve yourself with the world, perhaps this makes sense for me.

I'm assuming that by and large people who are reading this are in suburbs or cities and are perhaps thinking about being by the river, or buying near the river, or just thinking about the freedom to walk along a beach. I realize that I live in pretty much nowhere, albeit a nowhere I've come to love. This isn't meant to be any sort of a sales pitch, but really a diversion.

Living in Richmond county there really aren't too many of us who are full timers. Referring to the Historic Sites in Virginia's Northern Neck and Essex County is how I'm getting my numbers (the book may be available through Amazon and if not and if you'd like one, let me know kam129@aol.com and I have about a dozen I could sell....the money goes to MPNNP which is the Middle Peninsula Northern Neck Historic Preservation group).  ((Learned by checking online that Amazon is out of this book but that UVA Press has copies you can purchase online. They collaborated with the group who wrote and put this together.)) So this helpful book informs me that the population of this county was 6,985 in 1790. By 1940 the population had fallen slightly to 6,634 but by the year 2000 it had risen to 8,809. ((This is a Monday morning addition after my Sunday post. Turns out that Richmond county population in 2017 was 8,939. Not a big increase over 2000.)) Can't say that there has been a huge influx of people....don't you agree?

I've thought that maybe I'd provide a "day in the life" sort of blog here or it might be a "week in the life" and that it would be about small town USA during this enforced stay at home time. It may bore some. It may provide escape to some. It may be that when you see these lines and lines of text you just quickly run to where the numbers are posted (and I promise to post numbers weekly since there will never be a time like this and so it will be interesting however the chips fall).

So this is my beginning. I got up early and took the dogs for a ride. Started to clean up my vegetable beds. Picked some flowers and am rearranging a room. Every day I try to set some intentions and then I try to be happy if I achieve at least a quarter or a half of them. I will try to do this post tomorrow and maybe on Tuesday or Wednesday I'll put up numbers. In the olden days I used to do a bit of specail review of properties price at a million dollar plus. Perhaps it's time to look at how many have been selling and how many are on the market. It may be that they hardly sell during this upcoming year, or it may be that people who have that kind of cash are looking for something tangible where they think they are getting a good deal. We'll see. Be well all.

Here we are living in a limbo land of great unknowns. Not easy for anyone. Not any way to plan for the future. Just plain difficult. As I said on the home page I was a bit surprised to see how healthy this year's market has been based on the January 1 through March 28 data. Having had significant losses of people important to me in the last year or so, real estate had faded into the woodwork for me. Not a big priority. I'm emerging from most of that and so find that looking at our statistics is helpful. Also, in the future, I'd like to work with realistic people who respond to the numbers. It is hard enough to do a job if people don't want to see what we provide as professionals. That said, here are the numbers for the four counties of the Northern Neck which include Richmond, Westmoreland, Lancaster and Northumberland. I'm only putting up the residential numbers and may go back and look at land. It all depends on my energy and interest.

This does show that our market has been chugging right along with signficant dollar sales of $38.7 million just in the first quarter. A significant increase over last year. Not bad.

Looking at the waterfront solds the question that comes to mind is in 2020 when we've had a greater number of sales and a greater total value in those sales we also see that there is a median days on market of 260. That tells me that probably there was some heavy discounting on the original listing price. It may well be that I'll go back and look at that to see what happened there. If I do, the I'll report back. In the meantime if we round up 59 (number of sales for the first quarter of 2020) by multiplying by 4 what we find is that there isn't too much difference between what we would have expected annually for sales to the number of actives. That would have been the way we have looked at this if this were a normal year. Time will tell, but obviously we've never seen anything like this.

One last thought is that in a world that has become increasingly focused on amenities and life in the city, our type of location may now have a deeper meaning to people. Being in nature. Being in a less congested area may become a plus rather than a loss in terms of convenience and shopping. Yes, time will tell.

Here we are almost at the end of January and as I explained on the home page my obligations as a caregiver seriously cut into my time and availability for real estate. I'm back at real estate now and am hopeful that life will be more reasonable.

That said, we're doign pretty well wtih real estate here on the Northern Neck. You'll see in the below charts that we're keeping up with the high point which grew from the 2008 crash, and that high point was was 2017. Below you'll find both residential and land numbers. In each category there's a subset for the waterfront offerings. The actives are from the 12th of January which is when I pulled these statistics.

All this information helps in getting perspective.

We always have plenty of land for sale and now is not an exception. Look at how many active properties there are in relationship to the number sold in 2019. There's five years' worth of inventory sitting in our actives right now!

Waterfront actives show us an even higher relationship of actives to solds. A litttle over 7 years' worth of inventory available on the market. Obviously you have to be priced right to sell at this point.

As I said in the earlier post about a week ago, I need to update and see how the overall market is doing in relationship to last year. That is what we have here, the numbers for last year at this time (August 12) and the numbers for this year. Although we found that sales of waterfront residential is improved in 2018 we aren't quite keeping up in the overall residential market this year. You'll see. Also, although the inventory for waterfront is far from excessive, we have quite a bit of inventory if you take into account all of the residential market. Here are the numbers:

No bad news here, but just noteworthy that we aren't forging ahead again this year. Lots of factors for that I'm sure so we'll just have to see what the end of the year brings.

All land sales for the four counties 1/1 through 8/12

Hmmm, we are sort of in the ballpark with last year's numbers but there is enough that is off that this should really be watched. The numbers and the dollars are lower for this year but the median days on market are considerably better this year. Look at that number of actives though....922 versus the 90 that have sold so far this year. Also the median sales price for property that has sold this year is way below last year. Looking for numbers to improve before the end of the year.

What is below is an update from last month related to sales of waterfront homes in the Northern Neck (in the four counties which includes Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Richmond counties). For the residential sales I've just put up the numbers for 2016 through 2018 and the Actives. Although we have greater sales this year in terms of numbers, we hardly have an increase in the dollars sold. This also doesn't tell us about the entire reidential market and if we are running ahead, behind or even with last year. That is something I'll check on early next week.

It is nice to see that we are indeed holding our own and really in terms of inventory, well we only have a bit more than a year's worth of inventory in the current ACTIVE category which is good. Then again what I really need to do is look at how that breaks out at different price points. We've found in the past that there isn't much inventory under $500,000 or perhaps under $400,000 whereas in the higher price points there can be a couple of years or more. That is another category I need to work up and will try to look at next week.

I don't believe I've updated land statistics at all since the beginning of the year. In this set of numbers I've chosen to review only waterfront land since that is our largest category of sales. What thie below chart shows me is that sales pretty much swing back and forth between higher and lower numbers with 2017 being the best year and this year being average. What really stands out at this moment though is that there are 438 active waterfront listings in the four counties and we've sold 30 so far in the 7 months of 2018. Hmmmm.

As stated above, more units in 2018 with hardly more dollars than 2017. Lower median sales price for this year. Slightly increased median days on market in 2018. Not too much inventory.

In my mind there is a sizable shadow inventory of lots that people would love to sell but found that the market in 2009 and for a number of years was so poor that they just dropped out. You can see that there is plenty on the market, but with sales taking almost a year in the median category we are not experiencing quick sales by any means. And think about the amount of choice that people have and so that puts pressure on prices. Then again the right lot in the right location and priced well will really stand out. Sellers, take note! You have to be realistic. Also you need to work with your realtor since putting a sign up and putting something into MLS does not sell it. I can't begin to tell you how often I may go out with clients or may send them out to look at lots and scope out neighborhoods only to find that there may or many not be signs and there is no path to the water and there is just no way to evaluate a lot. That doesn't get your property sold. It needs to be somewhat cared for and easy to understand.

A closing note....and let me introduce you to a beautiful well priced waterfront lot on the Nomini. $174,900 for just under 3 acres. 180 feet of waterfrontage with 4 to 5 feet of water depth. Path cleared along the right side of the lot to the water. Motivated seller. Small subdivision where you'd hardly know you had neighbors. Perked for conventional system. If you are in the market....you might take a look.

Thank you. Kathryn Murray, Broker, MBA

Yes, I've been away for too long. No sad stories, just a bit of results for right here and right now. I've really started to wonder about this market since it is so sort of hit-and-miss. Lots going on in places. Not so much going on in others. It really is a bit different. And what I've found out from the numbers tells me that we are holding our own, selling as much as last year at this time, and that is good, but we aren't eclipsing last year by any means. These two years (2017 and 2018) when you look at the first half of the year and way ahead of previous years. Still we have plenty of inventory. You'll see. Take a look at the number below.

These sales are for the four counties of the Northern Neck which includes Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Richmond. It is for the period from January 1 through June 30th for the respective years. Also shows how many properties are currently active.

Below are the waterfront only sales with the same parameters.

We would appreciate that both buyers and sellers keep in mind that this isn't like the "big city" markets with the aggressive activity that relates to a tightening market. This is a strong market. This is a great place to buy, but there's still plenty on the market and so I'm sure that buyers are taking their time to weigh their options.

Written by Kathryn Murray, Broker, Owner, MBA

Yes, it has been too long and yes, I finally can add some perspective. My expectation about sales in 2018 would be that we are once again improving. As you can see though, we are holding our own, but it is a bit of a mixed bag. Interestingly although 2016 was not the year 2017 was for sales, it was an equally good year if you only looked at the January 1 to May 31st sales numbers, which is what we are looking at here.

I won't take so long for the statistics on the balance of residential or for land. It is unusual for me to let this go for so long simply because I'm so curious. It is also helpful for anyone buying or selling to know what the market is doing. With all the news we get about places having sales, sales, sales, the expectation is that that is happening here. The answer is no, not quite, although we have a healthy market and are glad to be able to say that.

The below numbers are for the four counties of the Northern Neck. Westmoreland, Northumberland, Richmond and Lancaster. Waterfront residential.

The waterfront residential sales have been very consistent from 2016 through 2018. The dollars are different and most markedly so for 2017. The dollars for 2016 and 2018 are more similar as are the median sales prices. I'm not giving you the exact math here, but if you doubled the 96 that have sold and got 192....that would be roughly how many homes we'd anticipate selling this year. I annualized it although as you surely realized I used 5 not 6 months' number of sales. So very very roughly you can see with 388 listings that we have about two years inventory. At some point I need to break this down by categories for in some price points we probably have not too much inventory while in other price points there is enough inventory for many years. That is another angle that needs to be looked at and I'll do that soon.   Thanks for reading, Kathryn

A bit of a Northern Neck sales update now that we are going into the last stretch of a cool to cold April. Here are the sales numbers for waterfront homes over the years, as well as how many are active as of April 21st. These numbers are for the four counties of the Northern Neck which includes Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Richmond.

It's obvious that things have been improving and judging from both what I'm experiencing and what I'm hearing this is a very busy 2018 for local real estate.

Yes, I've been slow in getting this up. And after I put up land I need to put up residential to show 2017 year end totals in comparison to the preceeding years. Don't know what but putting up land seemed more pressing.

Below are the sales summaries of land in the four counties of the Northern Neck....Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond and Westmoreland. The numbers are for the full years 2015, 2016 and 2017. There is a subset of waterfront land in the second chart which is obviously our largest set of land sales. And then finally there is the active listings which are on the market, today, February 5. This all adds to perspective.

Pretty strong sales in 2017. By far the most sales in a year since the crash at the end of 2008. Plenty of active properties though, with almost 5 years worth of inventory. Median sales price is up. Sales time is closing in on a year on market at least. Better, but not great. We can be thankful though, since there were years when there was very little moving with our land listings.

Good sales numbers for the waterfront properties. In 2017 the waterfront land sales were almost 50% of the overall sales which didn't happen in the previous years. It is clear these sales are taking a long time to finalize with 422 being the median days on market for this set of solds. Again, around 5 years' worth of property on the market. As a bit of a Ripley-Believe-It-Or-Not I looked at the land listing that has been on the market for the longest continuous period of time. It went on in 2005 and is still on the market. In my opinion the market price of the property now, more than a dozen years later refects the adjustment that should have been made in the beginning of 2009 and then the reductions should have followed the market. I guess this person epitomizes the "I don't have to sell it," since it looks as if it may never sell.

The sales reviewed in the four charts below are for the four counties of the Northern Neck. This includes Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Westmoreland counties. It covers the years noted for the timeframe 1/1 through 11/28. It shows that 2017 has been the best year since the big banking debacle. Thankfully our inventories are coming down although we'll see what the sales to active relationship is come around the 1st of March since there is a fair amount of inventory that has been taken off the market for the winter. Time will tell.

Quite an improvement if you look at 2015 to 2017 sales...and even a reasonable increase over last year's sales. We don't have an excessive amount of inventory. It could be that we almost have a year's inventory which is great!

Looking at the waterfront sales there has been a pretty good increase looking at 2015 to this year's sales. There's a considerably higher median sales price in 2017 than in the previous years. Median days on market is pretty close to 200 at any time over the last three years. Actives in this category are more considerable. Still there is less than two years' worth of inventory here which is good.

Big improvement in sales in 2017, a 50% increase over 2016. There's a much higher median sales price in 2017 too. Looks like we are beginning to deal with some of the backlog. Then again with 155 sold this year and 848 active....that's a lot of inventory. Also for the active properties there is a median days on market of 517. That is a really large number. It says to us that there are lots of properties that have been on the market for years and years. I have to believe that those who are sensitive to the market and price their properties are the ones who are finding success. This part of our market is truly starting to move which is great!

Waterfront properties seem to be the biggest winner in the land sales this year. In both 2015 and 2016 the subset of waterfront land to overall land was close to 1/3. With 2017 we are looking more at almost 1/2 the overall sales are waterfront ones. That says there is some real demand here. It must be too that prices are coming down or people who are buying are having the courage to offer what they believe something is worth and that perhaps is being accepted. Look at that 408 median days on market for the sold property. That is a long time. Then again look at the number of active listings....close to 400 with 71 sold so far this year. Still a buyer's market even though it is a greatly improved market this year.

Here are the sales numbers for the four counties of the Northern Neck. They run from the 1st of January through the 30th of September for the respective years. All along I have been saying that 2016 has been the best year, but perhaps you'd like to see really how well we have been doing. If you keep in perspective that 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 were really bad years for real estate here (as in many other places) then you can see how the market has been turning around with the 2013 through 2017 numbers. It is very encouraging.

Pretty clear that there has been some real improvement over the last couple of years.

Improvement here too. And quite an increase in the median sales price for waterfront property.  More actives than in the market overall, but not a bad number.

Later this week I'll put up a similar review of land sales. It won't be as encouraging, but it will be some good news I believe.

MAJOR PRICE REDUCUTION!!! Drive Down the Tree Lined Driveway and Discover Paradise On a Beautiful Protected Deep Waterfront Point of Land in Ophelia--one of the BEST areas in the Northern Neck of Virginia. At the end of that lane of trees you'll reach this Magical Piece of History for you and your family and friends to enjoy!

There have been many Updates but Home still has its Historic Charm. It has beautifully Landscaped Grounds.  It is a 4 Bedroom and 2 1/2 Baths home with Hardwood Floors (some Original). There's a first floor bedroom and bath--High Ceilings and Wonderful Waterfront Views - New Water Treatment System - Replacement Windows -Recent New Well Pump & Valve - Newer Appliances except Vintage Stove - Home has Radiator Water Heat to keep warm in Coldest Days and is Comfortably Cooled by Window and Portable A/C Units - Water View 2nd Floor Deck with SunSetter Awning & Curtains - Sunroom - 2 Large Outdoor Sheds big enough to be "Tiny Houses" - Large pier with lift--

Extensive Repairs and Termite Prevention in 2012 - Would be Ideal B&B - HIgh Speed MetroCast Internet Service - This Unique Property is a MUST SEE! Buyers to Verify WaterDepth, believed to be 5 ft.   Call David Fine at 202-297-8946 to get to see this home.

MLS number 101616, address is 157 Edgewater. Take a look, you'll be pleased if you are looking in this pricepoint. An excellent value!

You see property advertised, you hear agents tell you this, you wonder if it is true....and maybe you take it under consideration and maybe not. I would like you, if you are at the right price point and if you have similar needs that would be met by this property, to take this listing very seriously.

Approximately a year ago it appraised for $490,000. As far as I can tell the market has gotten a little bit better at that approximate price point and there aren't so many good properties with similar attributes available, so perhaps you can factor that in. We put this property on the market (951 Bonums Point....in case you just want to go to our listings and look at it now) at $495,000 or so. The price has dropped once and then most recently the seller dropped it over $20,000. It is now priced at $424,900. That is a very good price. That falls into my cateogry of "the best of the best" simply meaning that when you price a property so that nothing else can compare given square footage, acreage, waterfront, outbuildings, types of fixtures, levels of upgrades....all those sorts of things....it is the best of the best.

The house was renovated a couple of years ago. It has a spectacular kitchen which is part of a large great room that overlooks Bonums Creek. There are decks all around this great room space and you can walk out the side of the living room area of this great room and walk over to the cutest (and sizable) workshop or studio space....with plenty of windows overlook the water views. That space has bunk beds built in to the back of it and a loft space above them. There is a new-ish airconditioner as well as gas logs so it can be an all season space. No water is run out to it...but can't kids run back to the house if they need to? And with two bedrooms other than the large master in the main house....perhaps you've got all your sleeping needs covered. Square footage is in the 2300 square foot vicinity.

There are two master suites, one on the first floor and one upstairs. There are other spaces that allow for a desk or a bookshelf or a collection to be displayed. There is a third bedroom and so two bedrooms on the first floor and one upstairs (an additional bath on the first floor and obviously there is one upstairs with the other master). The floors are handrubbed hardwood, unless they are tile....and sometimes tile is.....marble.....the master bath is terrific with room for someone to sit in a chair next to the large garden bath and read to whoever is the designated "soaker."

The garage space consists of a one and half car attached garage and a detached garage with room enough to have a workshop area in the front of it.

Now you are saying to yourself, why is this still on the market....and here is why.....it is back a long gravel road. Some people don't want to be that isolated. When you don't know the Northern Neck and haven't spent much time here that sort of situation may seem rather remote. I find that coming to the Northern Neck was just like moving to NYC when I got out of college.....everywhere I looked there seemed to be an empty nothingness that didn't have much meaning to me. I found that over time as I did things, and met people and traveled around, the area pulled together and became mine. That happened to me in NYC and that happened to me when I came to the Northern Neck 25 years ago. So I can understand that you can feel isolated. I also understand that you feel a sense of privacy and  have your own special escape that you can either stay home or travel out and there you are without a whole lot of interaction with others. That can be good and that can be bad.

Another aspect of this property that may be a drawback for some is that it doesn't have amenities and when you have grandkids visiting there isn't the pool down the street. Depending on the family and how they interact that may either be good or not be so good. I can't know. I'm simply putting out on the table what this is all about.

There is a large pier. There is a lift for a jet ski.  You can see the Potomac from the pier and so it is not far away from the mouth of the creek. Like many areas this is not a deep water situation. I think you can get three feet of water and maybe more. I'm not a boater and so I tell people that they need to investigate. For someone who is canoe or kayak oriented or has a smaller outboard boat....this should be fine. You can also travel back a considerable distance up the creek where there are other properties for sale now....one that is even offered by Sotheby's I believe at a price of over $1,000,000. So there are other people who have taken this gravel road and built down a side road.

At this property there is only one neighbor. Nice house with large garage with garage apartment. This is pointed out just so that you know that this isn't in an area of homes where it is the priciest in the area....the one next door was built as a more expensive house and sold at above $500,000 fairly recently.

Think about this property. Call us to see it. If it suits your needs add it to your list.....I believe you will be pleased provided you've taken into consideration what's been explained above. 951 Bonums (in the Kinsale area).....a very nice house!!

As we've discussed in the past, land is doing better than it has in a long time. This doesn't mean that the market is perfect by any means. It is still a buyers market and so when putting your land on for sale there is a far better opportunity to sell, but that doesn't mean it will sell quickly....or perhaps at all.

I've been approached by a number of parties who would like to sell their land. I totally understand. This has been a period of time since 2008 when the land sales have been literally crawling. Now we are doing better while at the same time there's plenty on the market. You'll see.

The factors that come into play when someone purchases property can be rather complex and even if you have a great lot that is priced right....if the one or two real buyers who might want such a property have a friend that is in another county, or they want to boat on a specific river, then that property is out. Part of what is going on is just the attributes of the property....acreage, waterfrontage, depth, ability to build reasonably (not too much site work) and perhaps amenities in the community. Then the other part is travel distance, proximity to friends or family or shopping, and other unnoted possible concerns.

What I'm trying to say is that as a Realtor I can price your property correctly per the prevailing market and we can look forward to someone coming and wanting to purchase it, yet there are other factors that may make the difference between a property sitting on the market and a sale. Keep in mind....this isn't simple.

With that preface, here are the numbers and they show greatly increased sales in 2017 over 2016 and 2016 was the best year for land sales since 2008. These numbers are for the four counties of the Northern Neck--Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond and Westmoreland.

There's no denying that 2017 is a better year for sales. Almost double the number of sales, considerably higher dollars, increase in median sales price. Yes, longer median days on market for 2017, but look at the median days on market for those that are active....there's still a lot of OLD inventory out there and let's hope it's getting priced to sell.

Waterfront land is really an improved segment with more than double the number of sales in 2017 and more than double the dollars. It looks as if in the waterfront category those older properties (meaning having been on the market longer) are selling which is great.  Still plenty of inventory. Still plenty of days on the market for the actives with a median closing in on 500 days. Not a simple market but clearly one that has improved.

We're holding our own in 2017 with numbers slightly below 2016, but really not significantly. The dollars being spent for residential real estate are greater this year which says that the higher end properties are selling. In these residential charts you'll see what has been going on. I'm changing my format a little, but it should be clear. This is for the four counties of the Northern Neck—Northumberland, Westmoreland, Richmond and Lancaster.

Please excuse this extra structure on the chart. Our vendor has "upgraded" our service and I can't figure out how to get rid of this stuff. I will call them later today, but don't have enough time to do that right now and would rather have this information up.

Land is tomorrow or Sunday. We'll see how that is going....it has been going quite well.

Anyone coming from either the DC direction or Richmond at the $350,000 and under price point should have this one on their list. It is spacious with the perfect floorplan for just a family, or a finished downstairs that would help accommodate a bunch more people. (3 bedroom/3 bath plus bonus room) In very good shape, with an open floorplan and a great large screened porch, you have to see it to appreciate all it has to offer. The home at 77 Merganser (and you can see it by looking at "our listings" button) has a good sized pier with two lifts (one for your boat and the other for a jetski). The screened in porch, though is the place you could really spend your whole summer unless of course you are out on the boat. In a protected cove just off the Potomac River, there are great views out to the Potomac without the stress of what storms could do to the waterfront.

77 Merganser is located in Glebe Harbor and the association offers amenities that include a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, large boatramp and sand beaches to bike to. This is an easy distance when coming from DC since you are just below Montross and don't go as far as Hague to get here.

Give us a call to take a look and we'll be pleased to get you into the best property at this price along the Potomac!

Here are the numbers for the first half of the year compared with the two earlier years. Shows that we are doing much better in the sale of land on the Northern Neck than we have in a very long time. This is the best since the end of 2008 which sent all real estate into a tailspin. Good to see.

These numbers are really self-explanatory. Many more sales in 2017. Significantly more dollars which of course mostly has to do with more sales although the increase in median sales price contributed to that as well. Still the median days on market is significant and is way more than 1 year for the actives that are on the market. Good news, though, all in all.

Waterfront land sales fall into line with the overall sales of land in the Northern Neck. Many many more sales in 2017, more than double the number of solds in 2016. Significantly higher total sales dollars in 2017. Much higher median sales price this  year. Interestingly what has been selling has a very high median days on market. These properties have been on the market for quite a while for the most part and must have dropped in price to catch the buyers' attention.  Looking at those properties that are on the market....well 458 days for the median days on market is a big number. For the moment let's just concentrate on the fact that properties are selling and are doing much better than at any time since the end of 2008. Good news.

Here are the numbers from January 1 through June 29 for the respective years. This is for the four counties of the Northern Neck--Richmond, Lancaster, Northumberland and Westmoreland. Shows us that there isn't signficant increase over last year in terms of numbers sold although dollars sold are up. You'll see below.

As you can see there have only been two more sales in 2017 than in 2016 at this same time in the year. The dollars, though are considerably up. Median sales price is up and median days on market are down considerably in 2017. Not bad news at all. Pretty good news, especially for higher end properties.

One thing to take from this information is that we are improving in sales, but that our improvement has no relationship to the big improvements in city real estate. We are different. Special, but different.

                                 Waterfront residential sales 1/1 through 6/29

Here is a subset of residential, the waterfront residential sales. For 2017 there are fewer homes that have sold than in 2016 in this same time period. The dollars, just as in the full residential numbers, are higher for waterfront sales and may be a big part of the overall improvement of dollars for this market.....it may not affect the non-waterfront sales. Perhaps I'll check and see next week.

2017 has slightly fewer sales, higher dollars sold, higher median sales price and reduced median days on market when compared with the three previous years. Median days on market for the actives is only 130 which looks pretty good. In the next day or so I'll check on the million dollar plus properties....also, I'll check what the "average days on market" is for this segment and I'm betting it looks very different. Still, this information from yesterday's check on sales looks pretty good.

As we've been seeing, sales are improving for land here in the Northern Neck. The charts below show that really this is good news for this market that has been really sluggish for many years. Take a look and see just how far we've come since last year. This is very good news!

Just look at how many more properties have been sold in 2017 in comparison to 2016....a 50% improvement over last year. That's great. And total dollars sold exceed the preceding three years. This is good. Yes, granted there are 860 active properties and their median days on market is 443.5, but in comparison to last year we've moved into much more positive territory!

And here's the waterfront subset. 

Big improvement in sales this year over last year. Big improvement over any of the last three years. Still a lot of inventory, but in a climate where far more is selling....also the median sales price is up considerably over the past two years. Some of the more expensive inventory is being sold and I am hopeful that people are getting ready to build on those nice lots. Yes, an improving market! 

We've been seeing that the number of sales this year does not exceed last year's but the dollars for the solds are up.  The information that you'll see below certainly supports that. I've broken out the waterfront residential sales in the four counties of the Northern Neck (Northumberland, Westmoreland, Richmond and Lancaster) into two categories. One is the under $500,000 and the other is $500,000 to $1,000,000. Although it is interesting, it's not surprising given what we've been seeing in the overall numbers.

Considerably fewer sales in 2017 when compared with 2016. A higher median sales price in 2017 and fewer median days on market. Looking pretty god overall. The median sales price of the actives isn't far off the mark of the solds for 2017 either.

2017 gives us our best sales and best dollars in the four we're looking at. That's good. Also we have the highest median sales price .....Sales have improved and that's another good sign for our market.

The special morning is starting out grey and very quiet around here. In all the celebrations over this weekend I hope there has been recognition for the contributions and losses of those supporting us through the years and those currently caring for the U.S. citizens through their service.

The campground at Naylors was pretty packed on Friday. Some left as early as Sunday morning. There was a pretty good band down near the water on Saturday night and I hope that many of the campers enjoyed it.

These big holiday weekends are always a bit of a double-edged sword. You want the owners of the campground to have plenty of people down and enjoying the area. For city dwellers I'm sure that this little bit of heaven is quite a reprieve. Granted most people are in campers and not in tents, but truly this is a get-away.

On weekends such as this I know that there are lots of dogs accompanying campers and that my ever-curious Lab mutts think they rule the area. They also want to check out the base of any grilling area to see what they might find for a bit of a snack. What happens is I try to control what is rather uncontrollable and so the weekend has a bit of extra responsibility keeping track of the dogs and letting them out one at a time, or taking them out with one on a leash. This is extreme for them.

For anyone in real estate mode or soon to be in real estate mode, keep in mind that there is plenty out there for sale, but certain inventories are getting tight. As someone suggested to me recently there has been a fair amount of time when you could purchase a nice getaway on the water for $250,000 and under. Now a lot of those properties are gone and it is looking like the new projected "low price" would be under $300,000.

We have numerous excellent properties for sale and so you can either look at "Our Listings" button or perhaps the "Featured Listings" to take a look. Some real values and some exceptional properties. 

Wishing you a Memorial Day full of friends and family and remembering.

The information below confirms that we are in an improving market. Not hugely improving, but improving. These sales for residential property are from the four counties in the Northern Neck, Richmond, Lancaster, Northumberland and Westmoreland. They are for the period January 1 through May 16. I've changed this slightly in that the waterfront residential subset is included in the overall chart. I believe it is clear.

Slightly less than half the sales were waterfront property this year. A very major portion of the dollars $41.1 million was for waterfront when looking at the value of sales overall $55.1. Although I haven't put it in, it's obvious that with slightly fewer waterfront sales this year (82 versus 84) in comparison to last year and greatly increased dollars $33.6 compared with $41.1 this year, the median sales price has to be much higher this year. Yes, improving, and by the weekend I'll look at the price points of waterfront property to see what under $500,000 is doing and compare it with $500,000 to $800,000 and then some of the higher segments. Good news, although not a big change except for the more high-end properties.

The numbers below are for January 1 through May 4 for the respective years. Much as I had thought that residential sales were improving I find that the overall shows that, but the waterfront residential sales are not a bigger number (yes, more dollars and higher median sales figure this year but one fewer sold). Take a look below to see what is going on. Basically the improved number of sales this year is associated more with non-waterfront properties. 

For the residential market as a whole, more sales, more dollars, higher median sales price and reduced median days on market. All of this is good. Also we have about a year and half of inventory if you annualize the sales we've had thus far. That's not bad at all.

Looking at waterfront residential we see that in terms of the past couple of years there isn't anything significant to say except that some higher end properties are selling. A tiny drop in sales from last year, a higher median sales price and a higher set of dollars in the sold transactions for this year. Pretty similar median days on market as has been going on in the last couple of years. We have close to two years worth of inventory which for the Northern Neck is not a really bad number. It just shows that there are more actives in relationship to solds in the waterfront properties than in the non-waterfront ones.

Land is doing better. Significantly better than it had been. This has to be great news for land owners. Not something that you can look at and start raising prices....just look at the number of actives....861 versus the 53 sold thus far this year. But certainly reason to believe that if your property is priced well and provides value to the land seeker that you could actually be selling this year. Can't know but it sure looks better than 2015 and 2016.

These numbers are for January 1 through April 13th for the respective years. What this suggests is that land sales are doing better for the first time in a couple of years. Who would have known? It has been a consistently tough segment for sales and this does look better.

More sales. More dollars. Higher median sales price. And we seem to be getting rid of some older inventory since the median days on market for 2017 is 361.

* Not millions, just $638,500....didn't even get to $1,000,000 in 2016.

**Of the sales in 2017 I looked at the one that was on the marke tthe longest. It was on for 2360 days and it initially came on the market in 2010 for $599,000 and eventually sold for $210,000. Now that is quite something!! 

Again, more sales, more dollars, higher median sales price and 495 median days on market for 2017. We are making some progress with these properties. That is a very good thing. I'm hopeful that most properties are priced well so that they don't endure more than 2000 days on market.

Here's looking at a very productive spring selling season!!

It's hard to believe that you can find all this (see explanation of what this is, below) just 2 and a half hours from DC. This gorgeous, top of the line 5,000 square foot+ home with great expansive views is just the beginning. Almost ten acres of land mostly open and many acres fenced for your horses, 800 feet of waterfrontage on one of the nicest rivers on the Northern Neck. There's plenty of deep water with 6ft+ and there is a covered and protected pier complex with two boat lifts. 

The main home has the best of everything with such compoents as heated floors on the main level. There's a gourmet kitchen with a professional range as well as dual dishwashers. Custom cabinetry with granite and Caesar stone surfaces. Also a temperature controlled wine room. So much more.

There's a guest house/office facility with a full kitchen, fireplace, 1.5 baths, laundry area as well as a bedroom and a den. An outside pavillion with a kitchen is adjacent to this guest home and there is area for a swimming pool, if desired.

An 8 stall heated barn is recent construction. There's hot and cold running water in the facilty as well as tack room, wash stall and more for the horse lover. A four-railed fence encloses approximately three acres as well as a riding ring.

The property is beautifully landscaped with apple, pear, pomegranate, persimmon and fig trees. There's also a grape arbor.

A large dog run has attached to it a heated 11 x 11 canine guest house.

And just when you thought there couldn't be more there is a three car attached heated garage. The 55 x 40 detached garage is just steps away from the house and provides additional covered boat storage.

All this for $1,135,000 and within very reasonable driving distance from Washington DC. Please call David Fine, the listing agent at 202-297-8946. To see photos take a look at our featured listings here on this web site. You won't be disappointed.

Below you will see the up-to-date sales numbers for the time period January 1 through March 28th for the four counties of the Northern Neck--Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Richmond. As noted in asnapshot of sales about a month ago, we are doing reasonably well but not making huge strides over last year. As a matter of fact in terms of numbers of sales we are behind. The dollars for 2017 sales are up.

 Here's a subset of the above sales. This is for waterfront only.

These sales are for the four counties of the Northern Neck, Richmond, Lancaster, Northumberland and Westmoreland for almost the first quarter of each of the respective years. Interesting about 2017. I would have thought we were doing better than this in 2017.

Least number of properties sold in this timeframe since prior to 2014. Best median sales price of the four years and therefore almost the highest dollars from sales of the four years. Reasonable number of median days on market this year.  Probably in the vicinity of three years' worth of inventory right now although we'll be getting lots of new listings in the next 6 weeks or so.

Waterfront sales this year isn't exactly a dynamic segment, although it is good to see that the median price is up and that shows some of the higher-end properties are selling. If we were to round this out and think that there'd be about 100 waterfront homes sold this year, then looking at what we have here we'd think we have a bit in excess of three years worth of inventory. Not bad....not great....yet.

Hmmm. Fewest properties sold in this timeframe looking at our four years. Better dollar sales this year than last year. Much increased median sales price over the last two years. Look at the median days on market for these twelve solds!!! 534 days. That means many of the sold properties came down quite a bit to get sold. And look at the number of active properties. This is a difficult market for selling land.

All-out growth in the housing market this year is hinging on the Trump Administration’s policies, with the Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group expecting standstill wages to cripple affordability unless incomes improve.

“We expect the housing expansion to continue, albeit at a more moderate pace than last year given continued pressure on affordability,” says Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae chief economist. “Depressed inventory, particularly in the more affordable segments, will likely constrain sales and push home price gains that outpace income growth. A faster pace of monetary tightening, unless accompanied by a stronger increase in household income, also poses downside risk to housing.”

I believe that this is what will happen here. The lower end of the market is turning over properties more quickly. The middle range may still be okay because by and large these properties are purchased by people from out of town. The upcoming year isn't a simple one and may bring us some good sales, or may stay on the same course as 2016. All I can say is it won't be dull.  Kathryn

Here are the numbers that I didn't finish off quite some time ago. They are for the higher end properties, residential waterfront, in terms of sales in the four counties of the Northern Neck. Sorry to have taken so long to get these up. This was completed as of 2/16/17 and so that is when the actives were noted. Let's see what this tells us.

Highest number sold in 2016. Highest total value sold. Lower median sales price than 2015 and very significant median days on market in 2016 at 306. Actives are somewhat numerous but not horribly so. Also median days on market for those actives is at 238 which is within reason for our market.

Not bad. Not bad at all. Good number of sales. Good value for those solds. Good median sales price and not a terrible median sales price for 2016....plus not that many actives in relationship to solds. This looks good.

Some good news and some bad news. Fewest sold but when you are talking about the difference between 4, 5 or 6 sales that difference isn't huge. Then again....hmmm....at 4 sales it is 1/3 fewer homes sold than in 2015. You decide. Got some inventory off the market in 2016 that had been on for a long time. There is still a fair amount of inventory, but not terrible....the active inventory has in terms of the median been on for almost a year. It's taking a while, isn't it?

This is where 2016 was a real problem. No sales at all. And 11 actives, and they have on at a median days on market of 340. This is not good news for sellers.

Reasonably active when compared with 2014 and 2015. Reasonable number of sales in relationship to 2014 and 2015. Four years' worth of inventory on the market with a median days on market at 516. That says it takes a very very long time....or maybe never depending on how a property is priced.

Some sales. Nothing to write home about. 2015 was obviously much better. There are 5 years' worth of active inventory. Close to a year for the median days on market. Not a quick sale by any means and plenty in this category.

 

A number of weeks ago I put up the sales data for waterfront residential properties priced up to $700,000. I had promised to finish that up and have it here (finally). In any event for those of you either selling or purchasing in this higher end category, I hope that this is helpful.

Here we have just a bit of information that shows a six week period. It does give us an overview of activity and where we stand as of February 16, 2017. This is a comparison for 2014 through 2017 covering just January 1 through February 16 for each year.

All residential sales for the four counties:

2014       41 sold          9.7 million total        $140,000 median price        225 median days on market

2015       46 sold          14.5 million total      $229,000 median price        224 median days on market

2016       37 sold           10.5 million total     $205,000 median price        242 median days on market

2017       32 sold           11.2 million total      $284,000 median price       262 median days on market

And for the current active residential we have:

              594 active listings  244 million total      $325,000 median price       228 median days on market

For 2017 we have fewer houses sold, but more dollars realized and a higher median sales price. Not great news, but not bad news either.

Land information is as follows for the same January 1 through February 16 period.

2014           7 properties sold for a total of $950,000

2015           13 properties sold for a total of $983,000

2016           10 properties sold for a total of $421,000

2017          10 properties sold for a total of $1,100,000     So truly 2017 is looking better for land sales if we just look at this beginning of the year. That's good news!

Active properties are 861 for a total value of $117,000,000.

First, we've had quite the snow storm here. There's plenty of ice on the roads and really not much is going on. No school and I'm betting there are a lot of businesses closed. Cold, cold, cold. My husband thought I was crazy this morning because I had to make sure the dogs got their walk. Bundled all up and since there isn't any of the wind we had yesterday, really 4 degrees didn't feel bad at all. This, he thought, was really hard to believe. Nice day all in all and for those of us from up north it's nice to see some snow from time to time. True to form, though, we'll be hitting close to 70 degrees on Thursday so this snow will be history, and soon.

Second, some numbers. These are waterfront residential sales broken out by $100,000 increments (same four counties of the Northern Neck--Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond and Westmoreland). I did the research on January 4th, so the actives might have changed a bit, but really hardly at all. If we look these first set of numbers from $0 through $700,000, the majority show an improved market. The improving market is good for all of us.

Pretty stable sales overall. Slightly down in numbers (a grand total of 1) from last year. Median sales price is up considerably in 2016 and median days on market are down to their lowest level within this overall timeframe. There isn't that much inventory in that we have less than a year's worth of it at the moment. Then again we know that property does come off the market (expire) around the first of the year and may come back on around March 1st or so. Can't be sure, but I'm betting we'll see more inventory in a couple of months.

This segment is significantly improved when comparing to 2015 but also when comparing 2016 sales with the whole trend since 2012. There are more than double the number of sales in 2016 as there were in 2012. Also the dollars are more than double when you make that same comparison. Days on market are decidedly down in 2016. Looking very healthy for sales in this segment. Not much inventory either with only 41 on the market and 73 sold in 2016. Less than a year's inventory.

Another improved segment, although not significantly improved in 2016 over 2015. Certainly holding its own.

Another improved segment both in numbers and dollars when we look at 2015 and the previous three years. Not too m any actives either. More days on market in 2016 with a lower median sales price than in 2014 and 2015. Still, healthy numbers of solds in 2016 and better dollars.

This segment saw the numbers drop from 2015. It shows that not all of the market segments are marching upwards. Also, when you get to the higher dollars there aren't as many to purchase (most of the time....this doesn't always apply and you'll see how when I finish this set of charts up) and there aren't that many sold. Not great news here, but not really bad news either. About a year and a half worth of inventory when you look at the actives.

Another improved segment that shows steady advances over the years. 2016 brought us more sales, higher dollars and in comparison to 2015, higher median sales point. 2016's sales did require median days on market of 305, so that was quite a bit. Not too many on the market at this price now and the median days on market for the actives quite low at 172. Looking good here.

I promise to finish this up later this week so that we see how the higher priced segments look. If tomorrow is another snow day, it may be sooner rather than later.   Kathryn Murray, broker

As a subset of the most recent post, I'm breaking out how many waterfront lots have sold in the four counties of the Northern Neck (Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond and Westmoreland). All evidence as we follwed sales this year directed us toward poor results for 2016 and this has been borne out by looking at the below numbers today. 

In the below chart are the sales for the full year for all years (2012 through 2015) with 2016 being the exception where the sales are through today, December 29. (Please keep in mind that some Realtors take a bit of time to post their sales so perhaps by the 10th of January there will be a couple more stragglers to this sales total.) The current years' sales show a considerable decrease from 2015, actually slightly more than a 25% decline. And we're at lmost half of the 2014 sales. 12 years' worth of inventory is active, if sales continue at this rate. Not a pretty picture for waterfront land sales. We'll see if the economy will accelerate in 2017 and provide more sales to the owners who are ready to sell and have their lots have a new life....more new construction and activity for this very special part of the world.

* sales for the full year except for 2016. 2016's sales are for January 1 through December 29th.

On Saturday (Christmas eve) I updated the sales of residential properties on the Northern Neck (Richmond, Westmoreland, Northumberland and Lancaster counties). In that blog it was suggested that were we to combine those sales which are definitely improved with land sales then it might be said that overall 2015 and 2016 have very similar sales. Well the answer is, almost. Still 2016 comes out on top I believe.

Here are land sales for the four county area. It does show that we have a very long way to go to start chipping away at current inventory. With 887 lots for sale at the moment and 112 that have sold thus far in 2016, that's a lot of inventory. Also, this is the year of the fewest sales and the lowest dollar total and the lowest median sales price when looking at 2012 through today. There are some great deals out there on lots and you can understand why!!

*Sales are for the full year except for 2016 which includes January 1 through December 26.

Look at the median days on market for the actives!! 448 days....that's a lot of time for the median property to have been sitting on the market. As we've said in the past, it is important to be the best of the best in any category in order to get sold. In land that is especially true. In some instances it seems to require more than that because there aren't many people building these days.....truly a complicated situation. Then again, more than 100 lots did sell, so there are buyers out there!

In this blog we've been reporting that 2016 sales have basically been keeping pace with 2015. That was truly what was going on. I suspect that if I factor in the land sales, then the overall total will be very close between 2015 and 2016.  Looking at residential sales in 2016 in comparison to the previous years it is clear that our market is truly better. This is good for all of us. 

Later, next week, I'll break out segments of the market and so we will see where the sales are and are not. There are shifts going on and 2016 was a year with fewer homes in the high price points selling. But that clarity will come in a bit. And yes, I'll lump in land at a later date for a comparison so we'll see the total market. For now, though, it is great to see that 2016 has been a good one for residential sales, and one that reflects our market getting more and more healthy.

This information is for the four counties of the Northern Neck--Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Richmond.

*sales are for 1/1 through 12/24 for only 2016.

2016 gave us the most homes sold in the last 5 years. Most dollars in the five year period (2016). Not the highest median sales price. Fewer median days on market in 2016 than any of the other years shown here. Not that many active properties in relationship to what we've sold this year, although significantly higher dollars in the active category when compared with 2016 overall sales number. Higher median days for the on markets too. Still and all, this snapshot shows an improved market that we should be pleased with. Good to see. Suggests a strong market for next year too.

I realize I haven't completed my earlier exercise and will get back to it later this week and finish up. Thos higher price points need to be explained in context, but not today. Today I have an overview that is helpful in general. Shows that the residential market is up and the land market is down. Shows that we are about holding our own with residential sales, albeit at lower price points. We also don't have a huge amount of inventory of active properties, which is good. Land doesn't have any of that it its favor. You'll see. The numbers just really jump out at you about land sales. (Sales are for the four counties of the Northern Neck: Lancaster, Richmond, Westmoreland and Northumberland.)

As I said, not a bad market for the Northern Neck residential market.  Interesting to look at a certain relationship here, though....if the 505 sales of 2016 are 75% of the total actives (670), then what do we have when we figure 75% of the active dollars ($284.2 million)? The answer is $213.15 million which is quite the far cry from $138.3 million....just another way of looking at the residential market and see how the higher priced properties are very much present in the active market. The disconnect between the median sales price of the solds this year ($225,000) and the actives ($329,000) is another indication of a pricey side to the active properties. We'll see if next year changes this at all. I know Realtors are looking forward to a better market.

And yes, 2016 has the lowest number of properties sold in the 5 years that MLS covers. Granted the dollar value is a bit better than 2012, but not much. The days on market are significant but not anything like that for the actives at 444 DOM. There are also 886 properties for sale versus the 96 that have sold so far this year.....a lot of inventory is certainly an understatement. The strong belief is 2017 will be a better year. Let's certainly hope so, and especially for land.   --Kathryn Murray

I started on this last week, running (hah!) through the different price points to show how sales are going in particular price points. Bit by bit this will be done. Here are three more as we rise a bit higher in price. This is for the four counties of the Northern Neck (Lancaster, Northumberland, Richmond and Westmoreland).

This will be a work in progress. Obviously it takes time to compile these statistics and then to lay them out here for your review. For that reason today will be up to $500,000 and in a couple more days I'll do probably five more segments and a day or two later I'll finish this off.

These are residential sales and all types are contained in the numbers. No breaking out for waterfront. No breaking out for non waterfront. Everything. The numbers are for January 1 through November 3 for the respective years. This is for the four counties of the Northern Neck, Lancaster, Northumberland, Westmoreland and Richmond. This approach sheds a little more light on our market. And even though I believe the $/sqft is not a very good indicator of anything given the huge variables for each property (acreage, etc... just as a start) it's here for your review. That's it. Here we go for the price points up to $500,000.

What do we see here? Well a gradual increase in sales and an improvement dollar-wise. Nothing earth shattering. Reasonable median days on market....all below 200 including the actives. Fewer actives than we have solds for this year. Looks good!

Considerable increase in sales this year although you can see that 2014 was a good sales year for this segment and then 2015 the sales dropped off. Certainly the highest number of dollars in 2016 by far in terms of total sales. All median days on market are below 200. Actives are a bit more than the number of solds thus far this year, but still are under 20%. This looks good too!

Quite a jump in sales for this segment in 2016. This both for numbers of solds and for total dollars. We have the highest median sales price in 2016 as well. Looks like the median days on market are declining with both the days on market for the solds and for the actives at under 200. Not a huge amount of inventory in relationship to the solds....about 20% and we haven't gotten through the year yet. Looks good to me.

Some improvement in sales for 2016, although not sizable when compared to 2015. Median days on market is 212 for the solds, although 199 for the actives. About 30% more inventory on the market as we have solds for 2016. Not bad really, quite good. Just not quite as strong as the previous segments.

Hmmmm. Yes, improved in 2016 both in numbers and in dollars. Median days on market are  up for 2016 over 2014 and 2015 and exceed that 200 mark. More than double the number of actives as we have solds in 2016. Obviously this is more competitive and not as well a selling segment as any of the ones we've looked at thus far. 

 

Since sometimes I have the most time on Sundays to do a bit of this I thought, let's get this done!! Granted I'm going to have to break out the market some later this week to see where the sales really are, but this bit I have here is helpful.

In response to most people saying that "the market is getting better," I agree but guardedly. Essentially I believe we are mostly just plain stable with some segments of the market improving and others not. That said, here are the numbers both for residential and for land. They cover the four counties of the Northern Neck (Northumberland, Westmoreland, Lancaster and Richmond) and run from 1/1 through 10/30.

The increase in units sold and dollars sold is significant from 2012 to 2016. So that is a good thing. (Essentially 300 sales to 450 sales...quite an increase. The dollars follow along proportionately as well.) What isn't clear with 2016 versus 2015 is how this year will end...on an even note, a down note or an up note. I suspect that 2016 will be a slightly better year compared with 2015, with the majority of the increase due to more lower priced properties selling and that the high end properties will continue to lag. We'll check on this once all the numbers are in, but if you've been following this blog this year that really does look like a fairly good guess at the year end (with a touch of numerical information to inform that guess).

Here's a completely different dynamic. Sales in 2016 when compared with the previous four years are at an all time low. Dollars for the overall sales are at the same level as 2012, which is the lowest point...both 2012 and 2016 had $8.3 million in sales from the 1st of the year through October. What that 84 sales says about this year is if we averaged that out we'd be selling about 8 pieces of land each month. Think about what the 931 actives number says.....we have more properties that those we could sell in a ten year period. That is a lot of land!!

I'll do some more analysis this week. Had to do some family type checking on things, dealing with things. I think we all know that that isn't always simple.

Here are the numbers for January 1 through October 8 for the respective years. It was a bit difficult to get this information yesterday since the cloud cover was sufficient that my little wifi device seemed to take FOREVER. For that reason there is only residential information here. I'll update land tomorrow morning when I will be back in full swing....for the moment I just want to do a bit of catch up and then turn off the computer.....half a day a week seems reasonable (and there's always my phone to double check if need be.)

Here we are starting in on the fourth quarter. And here we are really looking at a year that probably should be seen as quite similar to 2015. You decide since we have more sales, but not significantly more dollars.

Other than looking at the numbers sold in 2016 and the dollars sold and seeing that it is a similar market to 2015 (lthough more skewed to lower priced houses in 2016).....what interests me most is tha the over $500,000 properties, has a median sales price of $625,000. Also, that the over $500,000 group has a significantly longer period of time before the property sells.

People approach me all the time and ask "isn't the market getting better....looks like it's getting better...." As you can see, that isn't a simple question and there isn't a simple answer. As we've looked at before, in certain price segments the answer is decidedly, yes. In others the answer is really, no. Just not simple.

A couple of parties have told me they would benefit with having these numbers generated. So here we have non-waterfront residential sales for the full years of 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. The sales for 2016 are through today, the 5th of October. This is for Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Richmond counties.

** 1/1 through 10/5....obviously only 9 months

Active properties number 249 at the moment. They have a total value of $51.7 million. The median price is $179,000. Median days on market is 146.

Projecting out for 2016, it looks as if this year will be about the same as 2015. So our dollars and our numbers will be the best since 2008....I'm quite sure, since it has been a slow rise in sales since the banking debacle. This is a pretty stable market at the moment.

These sales figures are for the four counties of the Northern Neck as well as Essex and Middlesex counties (Middle Peninsula properties). I've added the $/sq.ft. since some people are interested in these numbers. I find them particularly difficult to use when we look at properties that are rural. You aren't compensating for more acreage, or more water depth or a better view or a myriad of other things that affect value. Far easier to apply this to urban locations where it is more apples to apples, even if some adjustments might need to be made. So take these numbers ($/sq.ft.) with a grain of salt.

Improved number of sales this year. Improved dollars. Slightly lower median sales price and a considerable uptick in median days on market for the 2016 sales.

Considerable drop in sales this year versus last year. Better than 2013 or 2014 though. A real drop in the median days on market for this year. That's a plus. A bit more inventory that is available in relationship to the current solds.

This is the healthiest segment of these three price points we're looking at here. Slightly more than double the sales of 2012 have occured seen in 2016. More than double the dollars in 2016 versus 2012. A considerable uptick from 2015 in numbers sold and dollars sold. An increase in median sales price in 2016. A really notable number is the very long median days on market for the solds thus far this year. Must say that there's a lot that's been on the market that the price has come down to the point that it has sold. Interesting. 

We've been looking at how the market has been faring mostly by seeing this year's results in relationship to the past two years. It made me curious as to what the relatively "long-term" perspective might be. Our MLS system holds data for only five years and that is the reason for the limitation of the below chart. I realize that this is a lot of data, but I think it serves its purpose—it tells us where we stand today in relationship to a full five years. You might wish I'd broken it out in smaller increments....still this does add something to how we view the market. 

This chart shows that there has been some real improvement since 2012 in the segment. The median sales price hasn't changed much through this five year period and the actives have a much higher median sales price (actually list price) but still, this looks pretty healthy. Not a huge amount of inventory....just a factor of about 1.5 times as much available as has sold this year.

As with the $400,000 and under, this segment, too, shows improvement when looking at the 2012 to 2016 relationship and also the intervening years. A considerable improvement in terms of sales, and a slight improvement over 2015 in dollars, but yes, improving. Much more inventory than the lower priced properties. About 3 times as much inventory available as has sold thus far this year.

Easy to spot what is going on....this is the hard hit segment. Look at 2016 in relationship to the four previous years. Fewest number of properties sold. Fewest dollars realized. Lowest median sales price this year. And a bit more than 7 times as many actives as there are solds in 2016. Not a pretty picture. Also look at the disconnect in terms of the median sales price (lowest of the five years in 2016 at $835,000) versus the median sales price of the actives at $1.2 million. Very very challenging.

Here's the overview I promised. Thoughtit would be nice to know where we stand as of the 1st of September. I think we're really doing pretty much as you'd expect if you've been following this blog for the last few months.

These numbers are for the four counties of the Northern Neck which includes Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond and Westmoreland. The numbers are for the timeframe 1/1 throug 9/1 for the respective years. Also included are the active properties for each category. First are the residential sales with the waterfront residential sales following and they are obviously a subset. Then the same is displayed for land and then for waterfront land.

Residential sales 1/1 through 9/1

Noticed that the property in the residential category that has been on the market the longest has been on 2488 days. I'd say someone has been witing a while. And there hasn't been a price change in a year. That certainly fits as someone who "doesn't need to sell."

That little note was just an aside. If we look at the numbers above we see that more property has sold this year, but fewer dollars have been spent on these sales. Mixed results although it is good to reduce our inventory.

 Waterfront Residential sales 1/1 through 9/1

As with the total residential market we have the same situation....more sales with fewer dollars and a lower median sales price. Slight more days on market for the median. Quite a bit of inventory in regard to the solds. Looked at the Million Dollar plus sales for this same timeframe. 6 sold in 2014, 9 sold in 2015 and 2 have sold thus far in 2016. There are forty-six $1,000,000 plus properties for sale in our four counties at the moment.

Land sales 1/1 through 9/1

As you can see the numbers of properties sold has been diminishing and the dollars are fewer. Also an incredible difference in the active inventory (950) to the sold of 80 properties.

Waterfront land sales 1/1 through 9/1

Same story as the sales of overall land, fewer properties sold in 2016 and fewer dollars for those solds. In this case the median sales price is dropped and median days on market has increased. Median days on market is right around a year. And the multiple of actives to solds in 2016 is right around 17.5 times as many active as sold....that could take a few years?

I realize that by and large you come to this web site for information about the market and I respect that. Occasionally I like to put up something about my listings that might be of real interest to someone coming here.

There are two waterfront listings that I think are particularly of interest and I'll explain why.

One is located on Bonum's Creek and is just off the Potomac. (Westmoreland county near Kinsale.) It is protected by being on a creek and so not vulnerable to the full front Potomac weather while at the same time being barely a stone's throw away from the Potomac. Lots of waterfrontage, all rip-rapped except for a little piece that allows for someone to put a canoe or kayak in without dragging it over stone....it is a slightly sandy area. There's a nice sized pier and a beautiful view. 

The landscape is such that there are trees but they are not close together. Nice view and not a lot of lawn even though there is over 200 feet of waterfrontage. There is considerable privacy with only one nearby house.

The house has two master suites, one up and one down. The downstairs one which is the main one has a gorgeous large bathroom with marble and a large custom shower as well as a jacuzzi. Naturally there are double sinks. A large walk in closet too. There's an additional bedroom (guest) on the main floor. The kitchen area which is open to the dining and living area....as well as another small sitting area, is the kind of kitchen that many houses priced at twice this property's price (951 Bonum is priced at $486,000) might not be able to compete with. 

Beautiful floors, lots of exterior decks. An attached one-and-a-half car garage, a separate single car garage with workshop space. A studio that one could only dream of with a beautiful view, tucked in the woods, large windows...a cathedral ceiling. In the back of the open studio space are bunk beds. There is electric to the studio as well as heat and air conditioning. No water presently.

To view this property take a look at featured listings and it will show quickly since there aren't too many featured ones and none at this same price point.

The second property is 164 Bayview. It is a four bedroom, four and a half bath house that has been renovated and upgraded to the point that in a different market the asking price would easily be $1,000,000. Unfortunately that is not the market we are in and so that is what allows a purchaser to approach this house that has an asking price of $649,000. For anyone who is looking for the perfect waterfront getaway in terms o large open spaces, lots of room for people to spread out, a spectacular view....this is it. A huge master suite is at one end of the first floor. Beautiful bath and his and hers walk in closets. Another bedroom is down this wing and then you have the dining room, living room and then the kitchen. A small office is off the back of the dining room. The living room has a beautiful fireplace that is such that it works both for the living room and then on the other side for a sitting area which has the breakfast area behind that and adjacent to the kitchen. The kitchen has stainless appliances and a custom granite counter top with the least number of seams one could have for a very large space. 

The waterfront has a sandy area. There is a boathouse and although this is on the Potomac there is the breakwater of Sharks Tooth Island directly in front.

Since this little community is truly small (perhaps 8 houses or so) there isn't a lot of activity. If you went straight rather than turn onto Bayside you would find a public boat ramp that as best I can tell isn't used very often. So isn't it perfect that right there, less than 5 minutes away....probably two, you'd have access to this ramp.

The location here is great for anyone coming from the DC or Fredericksburg area. You don't have to add an extra half an hour or hour to get to your waterfront home. It is tucked back behind Montross and you can easilly come to Montross and get to it, or drive down the Stratford Hall Road and get there a little more quickly.

If either of these properties interest you, please look at the listings in the Featured Listings here on this web site. Take a look at the photos. And if I can answer any questions please email me or give me a call. Depending on what you are looking for either of these would be a very worthwhile trip. Thank you.  Kathryn Murray, broker, 804-450-4442 cell, kam129@aol.com

With the information I put together earlier this week showing that in the waterfront residential market there are numerous segments that are really improving this year....I thought, well how are we doing in the overall? That is what brought me to put together the nice snapshot shown below. And it really does tell us something. It tells me a lot. (If you are just checking this web site's statistics after a week or so, it really would be worthwhile to look at the post that just precedes this one. It gives a breakout of waterfront residential sales at $100,000 increments....for most of that market.)

The numbers in the three charts below are for the four counties of the Northern Neck--Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Richmond.

Looking at the 2016 sales numbers you might say, wow, what an improving market. The difference between 277 residences sold in 2015 and 320 in 2016 is considerable....43 more houses (interestingly that is almost exactly the number the market improved from 2014 to 2015 with far more dollars in 2015 looking at 2014 dollars....but that's not what we are really looking at here). Great, more sales!!! But wait a minute....what is this?.....fewer dollars total for this larger number of sales ($86.5 million in 2015 and $85.6 million in 2016). That isn't what you'd expect with 43 more sales in 2016.

This set of numbers supports what we saw in waterfront residential recently. It shows that in the rest of the market (anything non waterfront including water access and water view) there is a high percentage of sales at lower price points. We've also increased the median days on market for these sales. 2016 is not a bad market but it also isn't a really improved one, unless the goal is decreasing inventory. We are certainly doing just that, but most significantly for the lower priced properties.

This is a pretty straight forward set of information. Fewer sales, fewer dollars, lower median sales price and the only improvement is that median days on market for 2016 are lower than those in 2015. Lots and lots and lots of inventory. Median days on market for the active inventory is over a year.

*Property on the market longest at this moment has been on for 4061 days. No kidding!!

Hmmmm. Waterfront sales are hurting. Look at the numbers from 2014 through 2016. Drop in number of solds. Drop in dollars sold. Drop in median sales price. Slight increase in median days on market.....and wow, 18 sold in 2016 and 454 active at the moment.

This is a nice snapshot of the market. Helpful to see that there are the positives and the negatives. There is no real generalization that applies to the residential market. Land, though, is certainly very challenged.   (Kathryn Murray, broker)

What I put together and show below surprised me a little bit. Just goes to show you that the broad brush approach of looking at large segments of the market can be deceiving. In general when people ask me about the market I say it is flat in regard to last year (2015) which has been the best one since the debacle of the banking/mortgage meltdown. In broad brush terms that is true. But looking closer we can see that there are solid improvements in many sectors and so I'll go back and look at other portions of the market (other than waterfront residential) but for now we'll stick with this large slice of the market.

These numbers are for sales in the four counties of the Northern Neck--Richmond, Westmoreland, Northumberland and Lancaster. They are for the period 1/1 through 8/7 for the respective years.

Looking at the market in $100,000 segments until we get to $800,000 shows many different results. Most portions of the waterfront residential market are doing quite well. It is just that overall 2015 and 2016 numbers are similar. This, mostly because the high end properties are not doing as well as they had been in the last two years and that affects our dollars.

 We have just on more sale than last year in this category. And the dollars sold this year is more. The median sales price is higher than 2015 (although lower than 2014) and the median days on market is much improved over 2015. Yes, there are 21 properties on the market at this price, but that isn't a lot given what we've sold this year. So although it isn't a huge improvement, this segment is improved.

As we saw with the first segment, everything here is improved over the last two years....and significantly so. This is an improved segment. Not too much inventory either.

More sales, more dollars (just barely), a reduced median sales price and an increase in median days on market for 2016 in this segment. Improved, but mixed....I'd call it improved but not significantly. Looks like the inventory is quite a bit more with this price point.

More sales (significantly) and more dollars (significant too) with a very slightly higher median sales price over 2015 and a huge increase in the median days on market. This for 2016. All in all this is a quite improved segment with a fair amount of inventory. (As an aside, I looked at one property that sold this year in this category just to see what it went through to get to the finish line. It went on in 2011 at $825,000 and sold this year for $402,000. It's almost unbelievable, except I saw it and looked up these particulars.)

2016 market has fewer sales and fewer dollars. Median sales price is higher than 2015 and median days on market are dropped. Considerable inventory although there must be a fair amount that has come on recently since the median days on market for the actives is only 180 days. This is the first waterfront segment that has NOT IMPROVED since fewer numbers and fewer dollars in 2016.

Another improved segment. More sales, more dollars, higher median sales price all in 2016. The only negative is the median days on market has increased. Reasonable amount of inventory for a Northern Neck high end waterfront property...only twice the number of solds thus far this year sitting in the active category. Yes, improved.

There isn't a lot of action in this segment. Although this is not an improved segment there isn't too much that is different among the three years here. What we do see is a lot of inventory which would be a challenge if someone were selling and not priced well. Not improved...but almost unchanged really.

2016 we have fewer sales and fewer dollars than the two years previous. Also we have signficantly increased the median days on market for the solds. This one has quite a lot of inventory and obviously falls into the not improved category....actually significantly behind 2015. 

Nothing happening in this segment thus far in 2016. As you can see, there haven't been a lot of sales in the last couple of years. Quite a bit of inventory. Not improved.

Decidedly not improved and with an extremely challenging inventory.  Not improved.

I think what this shows is that stating that a market is improving or not is a very difficult thing to do. Having said that the market is basically flat to last year I've shown myself that there has been significant improvement at many price points. That is very good for our overall market and so that is what I'll explain going forward. Hopefully you've learned a little something here today.  Kathryn Murray, principal broker

As promised, here are the numbers to put this year into context with the previous few. Really nothing here is a big surprise, but it does serve as confirmation. In residential there are more properties sold thus far this year both in the overall category of residential and in the subset, waterfront residential, but dollars are down....sort of a mixed blessing. More property getting cleared from inventory. Greater focus on lower priced properties. All in all, property is selling.

So yes, more property sold in 2016 but at a lesser overall value and at a lower median sales price. Also the median days on market is up considerably when compared with last year. What we can see with the active properties is that people area putting property on the market at a fair rate since the median days on market is relatively low. Quite a bit of inventory, but if we are generous we'll say about 40% of this amount of inventory has sold this year. That isn't too bad in our buyers market.

Nothing surprising here. More properties sold and at a lesser price in 2016. Fewer dollars for the overall sales. Here we are at 32% of the overall active number in terms of what has sold in the NNeck in 2016. Again, not that bad for our buyer's market. We've certainly seen worse. Of course I will break out the sales in the various segments sometime later this month and that will tell us that that number doesn't apply across the board. That's for a later blog.

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There are two waterfront residential segments that I have a bit of special interest in right now. The first is for properties priced between $400,000 and $500,000. We have 83 that are active and 25 that have sold thus far this year. The median sales price for those solds was $425,000.

On the million dollar plus waterfront residential sales we still have only two that have sold thus far this year. One closed in January and the other in March. There are currently 46 active million dollar plus waterfront residential properties.

No surprise here either. Fewer units but same amount of dollars for the sales in 2016. Huge amount of inventory. One drop of good news is that the median days on market for the solds has dropped. 

That's it for now. Lots of inventory. Lots of great deals. Call us......Kathryn Murray, principal broker

From time to time I try to bring up suggestions of places to go and things to do. I have my own favorites and I'm sure that people who live throughout the Northern Neck have a full range of preferences as well.

Recently I spent time at the used bookstore in Warsaw. It is affiliated with RCC and so the funds go to the library or go to the college (I'm not sure). It's a good cause. While there I overheard one man as he and his wife were leaving with a big bag-full of books. He said he had one request and that was that the store moved to Richmond to make it more convenient for them. Obviously this very reasonably priced, and chock-full location is a book lover's dream. And so this couple comes about once a month to find their books in little old Warsaw.

For me, although I have been there before, I had a startling good visit. Part of it had to do with the fact that I gave myself time which is not the most normal of ways I fit in fun. I really took my time...perhaps an hour and left with an armful of hardcovers and paperbacks. The total came to $4 and so I splurged and left $5. What a treat! What fun! Really, although it doesn't look like anything fancy, it is a treasure for someone who wants to find books....and the prices are very right with paperbacks running at 5 for $1.

The hours may cause some to feel challenged since they are only open on Friday and Saturday from 10 to 2. But if you plan and give yourself some reasonable time and get there during those hours, I believe you'll be glad you did.

Two eateries in town have their own specialness. I would expect that just about everyone has stopped in to The Daily there at the main light in town, but if you haven't you should. They have great sandwiches and terrific soups that get ordered quickly on any given day, so don't expect to order a bowl if you come at 1 or 1:30. Just a nice place to stop with good food and good service. Then Relish, which is owned and cheffed by Carol (the sister of the owner of The Daily, K.G.) does her specialty cooking and could surprise the most discerning palate with a dinner out at Relish. I believe they are open Wednesday through Saturday for dinner, so check the web site to be sure. And make time to have a meal there....you won't be disappointed.

Another favorite Warsaw spot is Colonial Collectibles, right there across from the new Family Dollar (which unfortuantely took up a very nice corner of our little town, but I'm not part of those politics and figure the almighty dollar succeeded where planning for a future that didn't look like every strip mall wasn't in the cards....no opinions here!!) Anyway back to Colonial Collectibles.....as you might expect there is furniture and some of it old and nicely refinished. Then there are clothes in the back section....women's and very nice. In the front there is just about anything you would need to decorate your house or your dinner table. There are housewares, artwork, candles and jewelry. A lot of it has a nautical theme and so works well whether it is for your home or for a house warming present. I tend to give gift certificates to my clients to this store because it might be overlooked. Any of my buyers who receive this gift really do enjoy going in and searching for the perfect accent to their homes.

Moving out from the Warsaw area I do find that from time to time I have to spend time and the Essex Square Antiques Mall. It is right there in the same strip as the movie theater. Basically across the highway from Food Lion is where you'll find this storefront. They have just the right amount of stuff to peruse.  You can spend an hour or you can spend 15 minutes. The prices are reasonable given the quality and you shouldn't be bored. Nice staffing too. Definitely worth a shot and I'm quite the junker. What I try to do when I junk these days, though, is to confirm that I already have enough stuff and I've done very well over the years when I've acquired. The goal is to see things but not to buy.....most of the time it works.

Moving right along, I'm connected with the Rappahannock Art League and my photos (infused in aluminum) are on display there at their very nice facility on Main Street in Kilmarnock. When I first joined a few years ago I was a bit intimidated, but what I've learned is that it is a generous place with nice people and most everyone is either an artist or is supporting the arts (volunteers are either artists or friends of the arts or just interested). They offer classes and in the summer those classes are geared to kids. Although there is a discount to members, the prices are really reasonable for the quality of class and I know those kids have fun.  Both in the spring and fall there are classes for adults that run the gamet....if you look them up and go to their web site you'll learn more http://ralgallery.com/. You never know what it might feel like to start up a new direction in life....try your hand at something creative, spend some time with a great group at the photography group. There's really nothing stopping you!!

Coming a bit full circle I thought I'd let people know that David Fine (who is an agent with River & Rural Realty....the firm behind this web site and blog) has opened a coffee shop in Callao. This is located at the corner in Callao and is open 7 days of the week which is a real plus. (We of the Northern Neck full-time contingent get very tired of trying to figure out when things are open.) They are open 8 to 3 everyday but Sunday. On Sunday they open at 9 and stay open to 3 p.m. On Sunday they also serve breakfast all day for those who are in search of a breakfast place. I really think that this is a terrific idea. Montross has the Art of Coffee. Warsaw has The Daily and now Callao has the Callao Coffee Cafe. What is particularly nice about the Callao location is that it is open on Sunday. I'm pretty sure The Daily isn't and don't know about the Art of Coffee. I think lots of people would like to go out on Sunday, especially after church.

Oh, the other day my clients and I ended up at the Lancaster Tavern. It was Sunday and we rolled up to the CarWash Cafe (which is a nice place to eat) and it was 2 p.m. and they were closing up. Didn't make me happy at all. But with a call to the Lancaster Tavern we were driving up Rt. 3 in pursuit of a late lunch. We weren't disappointed. All of the food was great and the service was very good. Couldn't have been better.

That's about all the rambling for today. Tomorrow is another day and a day to look at how 2016 is holding up in comparison with the previous couple of years. That's coming soon and I'll be very interested. Yes, we already got a bit of a taste of it with my almost three month analysis, but that doesn't tell us the whole year story. We'll see tomorrow.  Have a great Sunday!

This is a bit of an unorthodox quarter, but I was just wondering about how we were doing and thought I'd look at it in a slightly different way.

We are almost at the end of July and so this is for all of May, all of June and July through the 28th (today) and looking at sales from 2014, 2015 and 2016. This for the four counties of the Northern Neck----Lancaster, Westmoreland, Northumberland and Richmond.

This is a little bit interesting. And because it is odd, I'll do the numbers for the full year-to-date on Monday when we've finished out this month.

For this timeframe (5/1 through 7/28 for respective years) here are the numbers:

2014 (all residential)              94 properties sold              $26.8 million, value of the solds

2015 (all residential)              120 properties sold            $37.9 million, value of the solds

2016 (all residential)              151 properties sold            $40.9 million, value of the solds

All in all looking at the above we see that the numbers of properties have improved each year with 2016 giving us the most sales so far.

In the subset of residential we see that waterfront residential has done the following:

2014 (wf residential)              46 properties sold              $19.7 million, value of the solds

2015 (wf residential)              66 properties sold              $29.2 million, value of the solds

2016 (wf residential)              74 properties sold               $28.7 million, value of the solds

Again, the improving number of sales, but in this case the 74 properties sold in 2016 in this category sold for fewer dollars than the 66 properties that sold in the same time period in 2015. (66 sold in 2015 and 74 sold in 2016. In 2015 the sold value was $29.2 million and this year it is less than that at $28.7.)

Finally land sales

2014 (all land)                        44 properties sold                $5.5 million, value of solds

2015 (all land)                         36 properties sold               $4.5 million, value of solds

2016 (all land)                         28 properties sold               $3.9 million, value of solds

We know that the number of lots for sale in the Northern Neck is greater than 900. We know if we round up the current sales we would end up with approximately 100 lots sold and so that is approximately 9 years' worth of inventory. We've known that land sales have been challenged. Essentially  nothing has changed except that in the last three years worth of sales for this quarter, 2016 has performed the poorest.

We'll see what the full year tells us (to date) on Monday.

Here we are in the midst of serious summer. This hot weather is hot!! And all that peculiar cloudy, cool of Sunday and Monday of 4th of July weekend is a distant memory.

The numbers we found today seem to support what we've been seeing all along. Land sales are down. And inventory is very high. Take a look at how we stand as of today!

Sales in the four counties of the Northern Neck, Lancaster, Northumberland, Westmoreland and Richmond. This is for the timeframe January 1 through July 8th for the respective years.

2014      76 sales of all types of land, value $9.9 million

             33 of those sales were waterfront land, value $7.1 million 

2015      68 sales of all types of land, value $6.4 million

             26 sales of waterfront land, value $3.7 million

2016      49 sales of all types of land, value $5.8 million

             15 sales of waterfront land, value $2.6 million

Active properties   960 with a value of $141.7 million (all land)

                           463 waterfront land with a value of $111.2 million

I added the colors above to make it easier to look at each year within each category. For instance with waterfront land there were 33 sales in 2014, 26 sales in 2015 and now in 2016 there are 15 sales. Not a large amount of sales....and 463 active properties that are waterfront land.

Yesterday I posted the overview for sales of residential properties in the four counties of the Northern Neck. The subset was posted as well showing us how the waterfront residential is doing as well. Seems we are holding our own but there's no indication of a surge in sales, just nice steady sales.

Just wanted to touch on one of my pet categories which is the million dollar club. Here is what I found.

1/1 to 7/7 in 2015     there were 7 waterfront homes that sold

1/1 to 7/1 in 2016     there are 2 waterfront homes that have sold

There are now 47 active. Lots of inventory!

Okay, back on track after a terrible time trying to renew and them moving the domaine name. I can't believe how much technology helps us. I also can't believe how much it hinders us.

Looking at these sales data it kind of looks as you'd expect from all the discussions thus far this year. We are "holding our own" in that we are diong better, sort of, than last year. More sales and more dollars.....just not significantly more dollars. And not a whole lot of extra days on market....so that is pretty good.

Really the same story as the overall residential sales market. More units. Not more dollars in 2016. Reduced median sales price in 2016 and increased median days on market for 2016. In the overall this isn't too bad in that it looks as if we have about two years worth of waterfront inventory. That changes when you start looking at how the different segments are selling. To be continued.

I decided to do this series of breakdowns on sales because even though I believe that what was posted yesterday is helpful for perspective, it doesn't give a full enough story. I keep looking at the 2015 versus 2016 numbers and know that overall 2015 exceeded 2014. Nonetheless, I do think it is instructive to see where the sales were in 2014 before the "improvement." Here we will look at them broken down into many price categories. That may help.

2016 shows an improvement over 2015. With the same number of sales in 2016 as in 2014 and the same total dollars, the one telling part here is that the median sales price is up and the median days on market are down in 2016. Both of these are good news. With 8 sold and 18 active there isn't a huge amount of inventory. That factor is just 2.25 times the number of actives as sold this year.

*734,450 is the total dollars and not in millions.

Wow! This segment is doing well and that's really what I had thought. I've been talking to people and telling them that this is where the action is. This is where people want to spend their dollars and that under $300,000 is a good segment.  You can see that this is a health one. Twenty six sales this year versus the previous two years with 14. Obviously better total dollars. A slightly increased median sales price and a considerably reduced median days on market. Good.   The factor for this one is 2.69 times solds for the active listings. Not bad.

Back to the numbers and seeing where we stand now that we're in to June. In my book we are really right on track with what we saw at the beginning of last month. More sales in 2016 and fewer dollars. This is true of all residential and also waterfront residential. Ironically with a considerable drop in number of land sales, we have increased dollars for 2016.

Million dollar plus waterfront sales have been six (6) in 2015 at this point in the year. There have been two (2) thus far this year, with 42 active.

Dollars from those sales were $7.4 million in 2015 and $2.87 million in 2016.  

I just can't get too inspired about numbers today. We've already seen last week that we are pretty much holding our own. That's pretty good. 

So I'll just add a bit of information. In the last week 66 new listings came on. There were 37 price changes and 24 sold. Fourteen properties expired. (I think I'm going to start tracking what goes on in total on any given week to see if things accelerate of there are changes. This will be something new).

Then in my favorite category....houses priced at over $1,000,000 here is the latest. In the four counties we look at....Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster and Richmond there are 41 active residential properties priced at $1 million or above. Two have sold thus far this year. In annualized terms we're looking at about ten years' worth of inventory. That looks challenging!! (Twenty one of those 41 are in Lancaster county. 16 are in Northumberland and 4 in Westmoreland. Richmond county has no houses priced at $1,000,000 plus at the moment.)

Anyway, this week will be a study in contrasts. Here we're having a cool grey and rainy weekend and all is very quiet. The week will start out much the same. Next weekend, despite the fact that 1/3 of the houses on this street are still in process because of the tornado (mostly they are empty lots where the houses have been bulldozed and hauled away) this place will be very alive. I expect the campground to fill up and all of the houses that haven't been opened up yet will be filled to capacity. The campground seems to only have big surges at very particular times of the year: Memorial Day weekend, 4th of July weekend, Labor Day weekend and also when the Tri-athalon is here. For such a pretty place, it is a bit of a shame for the owners, but for me it provides a very nice park like setting to take a walk around...when there's no one for me to bother.

So happy Sunday. I hope that you enjoy a quiet day with a bit of catch up time, or reading time.....a time to regroup for the next challenge and also to get ready for next weekend....it will be a great River Weekend!

--Kathryn Murray 804-450-4442

Here we are mid-May. Practically everywhere I go I am asked how the market is doing. As with the last month or two I've been saying that 2015 had been the best year since 2008 when the banking meltdown took place and that 2016 seems to be about even with the 2015 market. As you will see below, that is sort of true and very not true. Sort of true with respect to residential since more residential properties have been sold this year, but at a lower price and with more days on market (median). The "very not true" is shown in land sales.  With 4 and a half months under our belts the land market is beginning to show even less "strength" if one could say that there was any strength recently. You'll see. Take a look at the numbers below. They will give you a quick sense of what is going on in the four counties of the Northern Neck (Lancaster, Northumberland, Westmoreland and Richmond) up to the minute....in mid May.

Residential sales from 1/1 to 5/15 for the respective years

This looks pretty encouraging to me in regard to having a good 2016. Having had very strange weather and a cool and often cooler spring, we seem quite on track. You never can trust the anecdotal information so take this with a grain of salt, but I see a lot of motivated to buy people out there and I think 2016 will show an improvement over 2015 for sales and not just in units. (Right now we are down in terms of total dollars, have a lower edian sales price and have higher median days on market. There is no question that 2016 shows a much improved market over 2014.)

Land sales from 1/1 to 5/15 for the respective years

The numbers really speak for themselves. Goodness, 30 sales thus far this year and 953 actives. Active listings that have median days on market in excess of a year!!!  388 days as the median. The land market is very challenged.

And in the "just because" category I took a look at land sales for properties priced at over $100,000 and this is what I found.

Listings priced at $100,000 plus --number of sold lots thus far in 2016 is 6. The number of active is 389.

Total dollars of the six solds equals $1.8 million.  Total dollars of the active inventory is $115.1 million.

Median sales price of 2016's solds is $228,000, while the actives has $199,000 as the median sales price.

Median days on market of this year's solds is 309 days. Median days on market for the actives is 360.